Turkiye: Deep-sea scrap market firms as October restocking and tight supplies lift offers

• Higher rebar prices strengthen mill scrap buying
• Firm freight, tight scrap supply keep offers supported

Turkiye’s imported deep-sea ferrous scrap market strengthened on 3 September, with fresh US-origin transactions at higher levels encouraging suppliers to raise offers. Improved rebar sales, higher finished-steel prices, firm freight, and limited scrap availability supported scrap prices as mills began returning for October requirements.

Price assessments

• US-origin HMS 80:20 stood at around $382/t CFR Turkiye, up by $7/t w-o-w.
• US East Coast HMS 80:20 stood at around $344/t FOB, up by $4/t w-o-w.

The latest US deal has encouraged sellers to raise their price expectations. US suppliers were reportedly targeting around $386/t CFR, while EU suppliers were seeking around $380/t CFR. Tradable values for US-origin HMS 80:20 were indicated at $375-380/t CFR, with most market activity concentrated around $380/t CFR.

A Baltic-based trader indicated that the next cargo could be priced around $381-385/t CFR, depending on mill demand and supplier availability. Market participants expect US-origin HMS 80:20 around $385-386/t CFR, while Baltic-origin material could be around $381-382/t CFR. Some suppliers expect the market to test $385/t next week, with a possibility of reaching $390/t if Turkish mills return strongly for October restocking. The extent of further gains will largely depend on the pace of Turkish mill buying and the availability of scrap.

Scrap suppliers remained firm on offers, citing limited material availability, higher collection costs, and elevated freight. Scarcity of competitively priced alternative raw materials also supported scrap demand. However, further price gains will depend on fresh Turkish mill demand and the pace of October restocking.

The rise in scrap prices was supported by firmer Turkish rebar prices and improving mill margins. Export rebar was assessed at $590/t FOB Turkiye, with offers at $600-610/t FOB. The scrap-to-rebar spread stood at around $210-215/t, giving mills some room to absorb higher scrap costs.

Firm dry-bulk freight also supported scrap replacement costs, with Supramax freight from the US East Coast to Turkiye at $34-37/t and Rotterdam-Turkiye freight at $30-32/t.

Several transactions were reported at $371-380/t CFR, establishing a clear price range for the market:

• Netherlands-origin bulk HMS 80:20 sold to a West Marmara region-based mill at $371/t CFR
• US-origin bulk HMS 80:20 sold to an Aegean region-based mill at $380/t CFR
• US-origin bulk HMS 80:20 sold to a Mediterranean region-based mill at $380/t CFR
• US-origin bulk HMS 80:20 sold to a West Black Sea region-based mill at $375/t CFR
• France-origin bulk HMS 80:20 sold to an East Marmara region-based mill at $371/t CFR

Domestic market

Meanwhile, Turkish mills raised domestic scrap buying prices by TRY 200-400/t ($4-8/t) over the past two weeks, looking for more local material as imported scrap remained expensive and competitively priced billet was limited. Some mills kept prices unchanged in lira terms, but currency depreciation lowered their dollar-equivalent prices by around $3/t.

Domestic rebar prices also moved higher, with offers increasing by around $5-8/t during the week to $600-620/t exw, depending on the region. West Marmara raised offers to $610/t exw Biga and $620/t CFR Marmara. Workable domestic rebar levels were estimated at $590-610/t exw, while some offers reached $620-625/t exw.

Market participants said rebar demand was improving as the autumn construction season began. Producers kept production closely aligned with sales and limited spot availability, which helped them maintain higher price ideas. However, continued availability of competitively priced billet could limit mills’ willingness to chase higher scrap prices, particularly if finished-steel demand does not strengthen further.

Outlook

Turkiye’s imported scrap market is likely to stay firm through September as mills start covering October requirements. The latest US deals have put $380/t CFR as the key reference level for HMS 80:20. Suppliers could test $385-386/t CFR if scrap availability remains tight and freight and collection costs stay high. However, mills may resist higher levels if rebar sales remain slow and competitively priced billet continues to be available. This makes the next round of mill buying and October restocking critical for the market’s direction.