Türkiye: Cotton imports rise as domestic production faces sharp decline

• Planting area forecast down 30%, pushing 2026/27 production to 495,000 MT
• Imports projected at 1.1 million MT as Turkish mills remain dependent on overseas supply

Türkiye’s cotton market is heading into MY 2026/27 with a sharper production decline and greater dependence on imports. The USDA Post Ankara forecast places cotton production at 495,000 metric tons (2.27 million bales), down 26% year on year, as harvested area falls to 275,000 hectares, 30% below the previous season. Persistently low cotton prices have discouraged farmers from planting cotton, including as a second crop after wheat and barley.

Production costs pressure farmers

Despite favorable rainfall, adequate irrigation water and expectations of good yields, production economics remain challenging. Seed-cotton production costs are estimated at 32-35 lira/kg, translating to fiber costs of around 82-89 lira/kg excluding ginning. Domestic cotton was trading around 86 lira/kg in August, leaving limited margins for producers. The delayed harvest, potentially extending into October or early November, also raises quality risks from rainfall.

Import demand gains importance

With domestic production declining, cotton imports are forecast to rise 10% to 1.1 million MT. Brazil has emerged as Türkiye’s leading supplier, providing 377,701 MT during the first 11 months of MY 2025/26, compared with 215,537 MT from the US. Brazil’s lower-cost availability has displaced the US from the top supplier position.

Türkiye’s domestic consumption is forecast at 1.5 million MT, down 3% year on year, reflecting weak apparel demand and subdued textile-sector capacity utilization. Yarn factories continue to operate below capacity, while cotton yarn imports reached 58,082 MT during January-June 2026.

Implications for India

For India, Türkiye’s rising cotton import requirement offers an opportunity for Indian cotton and yarn suppliers, although Brazilian cotton is becoming increasingly competitive in the Turkish market. India supplied 4,328 MT of cotton yarn to Türkiye during January-June 2026, while Turkish cotton fabric imports from India stood at 1.93 million sq m. However, weak Turkish textile demand could limit the upside for Indian suppliers.