What is the future of coal-based power generation in India? This has become a topic of avid deliberation as renewable sources of energy generation are making substantial headway in the country, creating a subtle impression that it will eventually eclipse coal as the predominant fuel for power generation.
This issue was discussed in a recent conference, conducted by the renowned market research company—Infraline—at New Delhi. S.D. Prasad, the General Manager of NTPC Limited, delivered a presentation, articulating his views on the issue.
It is without doubt that the renewables are gaining incremental share in the electricity generating fuel mix, not only in India but also globally. In the global context, renewables are the fastest growing sources of electricity generation, growing at an average rate of 2.8% per year, to account for the same share of electricity generation, at 31%, equivalent to the share of coal, by 2040, according to the forecasts in place.
But, the growing popularity of renewable sources is not going to belittle the role of coal in electricity generation. There is about 1,139 BnT of coal reserves across the world, and that is sufficient for around 153 years, at the current production rates. India has around 8.5% of the total coal reserve in the world, and is the fifth in the world in terms of possession of coal reserves.
On the consumption side, China will continue to remain as the top coal consumer in the world upto 2040 despite the efforts of the Chinese government to lower coal consumption for curbing atmospheric pollution. The consumption in India is projected to grow at around 2.6% per year upto 2040. Also, India will become the second largest coal consuming country by 2020 in the world, displacing USA.
India hitherto has an installed electricity generation capacity of 329 GW, with coal accounting for the largest share in the generation, at 58.8%, while; renewables account for a share of 17.7%. With the expected GDP growth in the country, power generation will also rise further.
Coal will remain as the primary source for power generation in India in the future due to the intrinsic benefits of the fuel. Power generation through renewables often leads to variations in the generation during the peak and off-peak times. As such, coal-based generation is needed for base load generation as well as in balancing load during variations. Besides, renewable power generation is not available round the clock.
The domestic availability of coal due to the efforts of the government will continue to put coal as the primary mode of power generation. The government is not only working on its ambitious target of reaching 1.5 BnTPA of coal by FY22 but also has been improving the coal supply infrastructure, aimed at removing all the hassles in coal procurement by the thermal power plants.
Besides, there is 81 GW of power capacity under construction out of which 77% pertains to coal-based capacity.
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