- Thailand rice prices strengthened by $7–15/ton in early September.
- Vietnam prices remain stable at $440–445/ton, widening Thailand’s premium.
Thailand’s rice export market strengthened in early September after considerable volatility from mid-August. Between 2- 9 September, 5% White Rice rose from $483 to $490/ton, while 25% Rice increased from $460 to $469/ton. Several major varieties gained $7–15/ton in one week. Premium segments also remained firm, with one category rising from $1,247 to $1,264/ton.
Market volatility since mid-August
Thailand’s rice market has remained volatile from mid-August to early September, with several grades initially declining before recovering at the beginning of September. Between 13 Aug- 9 Sept, the recovery was visible across several varieties. The recovery should not be attributed only to currency movements, as supply expectations and international buying are also important. During the period, the Thai Baht strengthened from 32.87 to 32.70 per dollar.
Thailand’s strength highlights India’s price advantage
Thailand’s 5% White Rice export offer has reached around $490/ton, compared with $368–373/ton for India. This leaves a price difference of around $117–122/ton in India’s favour. Even after adding container costs, India remains highly competitive. If Thai prices continue to strengthen while Asian buyers remain price-sensitive, India could benefit as a low-cost origin, particularly in procurement by major buyers such as the Philippines.
Supply concerns support Thai rice prices
In Bangkok trade, expectations of lower production are being considered a major reason behind the recent price increase. The recovery is therefore not only demand-driven, with supply-side concerns also supporting the market. If production estimates weaken further or export demand remains strong, Thai rice prices could remain at higher levels. Meanwhile, Vietnam prices are currently stable around $440–445/ton, leaving Thailand with a sizeable premium in the Asian market.
Outlook
Thailand’s rice market is currently stable to bullish. The rise in 5% White, 25% and other major grades indicates that the export market has improved in September. However, Thailand’s substantial premium over India means buyers are likely to remain price-sensitive.
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