Thailand’s 5% WR prices hit 16-month high amid tightening supplies, weather concerns

• Millers hold back stocks in anticipation of further price increases
• El Nino conditions ease, but weather-related uncertainty lingers

Thailand’s rice export market strengthened further during the week ended 28 May 2026, with prices of 5% broken white rice climbing to around $451/tonne (t) FOB, marking the highest level since early 2025. The sharp increase has been driven by tightening domestic supplies following the harvest season, while exporters continue active procurement for nearby shipments.

Market participants reported that millers have been holding back stocks in anticipation of further price increases, reducing spot market availability and supporting firmer export offers.

Domestic rice prices move higher

The strengthening export market has also lifted domestic rice prices in Thailand. In the domestic market, Thai 5% broken white rice prices rose by THB 100 per 100 kg, equivalent to nearly $30.79/t w-o-w. Prices of parboiled 100% STX increased by THB 120-130 per 100 kg, or around $36.97-$40.05/t, while A1 Super 100% broken white rice prices moved higher by THB 20-30 per 100 kg, equivalent to about $6.16-$9.24/t w-o-w, according to the Thai Rice Millers Association. The appreciation of the Thai baht has further contributed to higher FOB quotations, affecting Thailand’s competitiveness against other Asian exporters.

Weather concerns remain supportive

In addition to supply tightness, market sentiment remains supported by concerns over weather developments ahead of the next crop cycle. Traders continue to closely monitor monsoon progress and rainfall distribution across Asia, as any weather-related disruption could affect planting and production prospects in key exporting countries. Although global El Nino conditions have eased, lingering uncertainty over weather patterns continues to keep buyers cautious and supportive of forward coverage.

Competition from India, Vietnam persists

Despite the rally in Thai prices, competition from India and Vietnam remains significant in the global rice trade. India continues to offer competitively priced non-basmati and parboiled rice, supported by ample domestic supplies and stable export availability. However, if Thai supply tightness persists and weather concerns intensify across Asia, regional rice prices may remain firm in the near term.