South Korea: Rice production projected to decline in 2026

• Cultivation area declines 1.1% amid government efforts to diversify crop production.
• Favourable weather during key growth stages is expected to support yields.

South Korea rice production is projected to decline 0.6% y-o-y to 3.52 million tonnes (mnt) in 2026, compared with 3.54 mnt last year. The projected decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in the area under rice cultivation, although favourable weather conditions during key crop development stages are expected to support yields.

Rice cultivation area declines 1.1%

South Korea rice cultivation area is estimated at 670,000 hectares (ha) in 2026, down 8,000 ha, or 1.1%, from 678,000 ha in the previous year. The reduction follows government initiatives to maintain appropriate rice production levels and encourage crop diversification. These include the strategic crop direct payment programme and schemes to convert paddy fields to alternative crops. The policy measures reflect efforts to align rice production with domestic demand while encouraging farmers to diversify cultivation. The decline in planted area is expected to remain the primary factor behind the lower production forecast for the year.

Favourable weather supports yield prospects

Despite the reduction in cultivation area, weather conditions during key stages of crop development have been more favourable than in 2025. Conditions during the tillering stage and grain formation period have improved compared with last year, when frequent rainfall contributed to significant disease and pest damage. As a result, yield per unit area is expected to increase, partially offsetting the impact of reduced cultivation area on overall production.

Historical rice production trend

South Korea rice production has declined steadily since 2021, falling from 3.88 million tonnes to 3.54 million tonnes in 2025. The downward trend continued for four consecutive years, with output decreasing by 1.3% in 2025. Production is projected to decline further by 0.6% to 3.52 million tonnes in 2026, reflecting the continued reduction in rice cultivation area.Outlook

South Korea’s rice production is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, with the projected 0.6% decline reflecting the impact of reduced cultivation area. Improved yields could limit the extent of the production loss, while government crop-diversification measures are likely to continue influencing planting decisions. Final production figures are expected in November.