South African thermal coal exports fell by 19% m-o-m to 4.5 million tonnes (mnt) in November 2022. This decline happened as coal supplies from the mines to port were disrupted due to the derailment of a railway line during the start of the month.
South Africa’s rail operator, Transnet, had declared force majeure (on 8 November) on the North Corridor route that runs from the mines to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT). Subsquent to the derailment of 97 wagons, the situation worsened due to extortion and violent acts there. The force majeure was withdrawn on 25 November.
South African thermal coal export shipments to Europe marked a 30% m-o-m fall to 1.93 million tonnes (mnt) in November 2022, CoalMint’s vessel data showed.
South African coal exports to key European countries
Qty in mn t
Within Europe, shipments to the Netherlands were the highest at 0.68 mnt last month, followed by Spain, at 0.60 mn t.
South African coal exports to Asian markets sees mixed trend
Qty in mn t
South Africa recorded the highest exports to India at 1.13 mn t in November 2022, down 30% against 1.6 mnt in October 2022.
The exports have dropped amid sluggish coal demand from the sponge iron sector, coupled with increased domestic coal production and dispatches. The production of state-run miner Coal India Ltd (CIL) has registered a m-o-m growth of 15% to 60.7 mnt in November 2022.
Exports to Taiwan also recorded a drop of 6% to 0.15 mnt in November.
However, in the case of South Korea, South African coal shipments recorded a rise of 51% m-o-m with a drop in prices as the latter’s popular 5500 NAR grade corrected downward by 10% m-o-m in November.
Exports to Pakistan also saw a rise in November majorly due to the drop in prices and expectations of colder temperature during the approaching winter as some power plants there are designed to work on imported coal. These utilities cannot blend the imported fuel with domestic, informed participants.
Outlook
South African thermal coal exports are likely to see a rise in the coming months as supply hurdles are resolved and there are expectations of colder temperatures ahead. However, demand from India is expected to remain sluggish amid increased domestic supplies and tepid demand from the sponge iron sector.
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