- Transnet’s operational challenges limit export volumes
- India imports drop 51% m-o-m amid firmer FOB offers
South African non-coking coal exports in January 2026 fell to 4.03 million tonnes (mnt), the lowest level in 17 months since July 2024. Total shipments stood at 3.65 mnt, down 33.2% m-o-m from 6.03 mnt in December 2025 and lower by 32.2% y-o-y compared with 5.94 mnt in January 2025.
In January, Transnet, a state-owned logistics infrastructure company responsible for South Africa’s port, rail, and pipeline network, faced operational challenges stemming from shortages of locomotives and critical spares, compounded by widespread cable theft and vandalism of its infrastructure. This was the primary driver behind the sharp decline in exports in January.
Country-wise break-up
India remained the largest destination in January 2026 at 1.01 mnt, though shipments declined 51.2% m-o-m from 2.07 mnt in December and were down 62.5% y-o-y from 2.69 mnt in January 2025. While portside South African prices in India had firmed up recently on tighter availability, export moderation may also have been influenced by firmer FOB offers and relatively higher freight levels during the period, which likely impacted import economics for price-sensitive buyers. Vessel positioning and freight firmness could have further slowed fixtures.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s imports stood at 0.56 mnt, easing 3.4% m-o-m from 0.58 mnt but surging 229% y-o-y from 0.17 mnt last year. Shipments to South Korea declined 56.3% m-o-m to 0.14 mnt from 0.32 mnt and were 65% lower y-o-y versus 0.40 mnt. Japan received 0.08 mnt, down 46.7% m-o-m from 0.15 mnt and 87.1% lower y-o-y compared with 0.62 mnt.
Israel remained relatively stable at 0.17 mnt, compared with 0.17 mnt in December and 0.18 mnt in January 2025. Bangladesh’s imports fell 38.9% m-o-m to 0.11 mnt from 0.18 mnt but were 83% higher y-o-y versus 0.06 mnt.
Overall, January volumes reflected broad-based declines across key Asian destinations, with India accounting for the sharpest contraction both sequentially and annually.
Price movement
As per BigMint’s assessment, RBCT FOB prices firmed up m-o-m in January 2026 due to the supply disruptions. The 5,500 NAR monthly average increased 3.4% to $79.55/t from $76.91/t in December. Similarly, 4,800 NAR rose 5.2% to $64.50/t from $61.30/t.
At Indian ports, exw-Paradip 4,800 NAR averaged INR 7,790/t in January 2026 compared with INR 7,460/t in the previous month, up 4.4%. The 5,500 NAR grade increased to INR 9,170/t from INR 8,850/t, registering a 3.6% rise. The uptick was supported by tighter South African availability, selective trades, and firmer freight levels during January, which strengthened import cost economics.
Outlook
Going ahead, export recovery will depend largely on improvement in Indian buying interest, while diversification into smaller destinations may provide partial volume stability.
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