According to the data provided by CoalMint research, coal shipments from South African premium port-RBCT has dropped to its lowest total since CY17 (the period from which Coalmint has started tracking RBCT’s coal shipments), eventually falling below the 5 MnT mark for the first time in Sep’19.
Export shipments from RBCT stood 4.6 MnT in Sep’19, down 10% on the month from 5.12 MnT in Aug’19. Coal deliveries were also marked 30% lower on the year from 6.53 MnT in Sep’18.
RBCT’s coal exports have remain relatively flat over CY19, weighing down by an abundance of competing coal in the seaborne market.
In the first 9 months of CY19 (Jan-Sep’19), coal shipments from RBCT have fell 6% Y-o-Y to 53.55 MnT, compared with 56.85 MnT noted in the year-ago period.
Indonesia’s undisciplined exports have had a big impact on South African coal market, which was also affected by a terminal demise in demand from Europe.
Market participants have estimated that coal exports from RBCT would continue to languish at around 73 MnT, unless benchmark export prices breach USD 75 from current levels.
Apparently, the Richards Bay coal index has witnessed a hefty decline from the beginning of CY19, with latest assessment noted at USD 67.75/MT, thereby resulting in high domestic stockpile levels, with exporters reluctant to sell.
RBCT’s Export Down 12% Y-o-Y in Q3 CY19
Coal shipments from RBCT decreased 12% Y-o-Y to 15.19 MnT during Q3 Y19 (Jul-Sep’19) compared with 17.3 MnT in Q3 CY18.
It is pertaining to note that the top-6 major importers had taken more coal in the quarter under review comparable to that in the previous year. In fact, barring India and Bangladesh, all the other coal receivers had posted a noticeable growth in coal intake from RBCT.
Indian coal imports were down 8% Y-o-Y to 8.01 MnT in Q3 CY19. However, the country had recorded an uptick in imports during the first 9-months of CY19, noted at 29.43 MnT as against 27.18 MnT in the year-ago period.
Lower intake from Indian buyers in the third quarter was seen as a result of a slowdown in Industrial activity amid monsoon season. However, funding difficulties and a cash shortage could continue to curtail industrial output and fuel demand.
Pakistan was the second-largest coal receiver in the Q3 CY19, with imports of 2.32 MnT coal.
South Korean coal imports from RBCT witnessed an exponential increase of 376% Y-o-Y to 1.09 MnT in Q3 CY19.
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