- Russian Q1 power generation up 1.5% y-o-y – at 332 TWh
- Hydro output jumps 5.3% y-o-y – to 47.3 TWh in Q1
- Thermal generation stable – at 229 TWh despite monthly decline
Russian electricity generation rose 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 to 332 TWh, according to Rosstat data. Hydro generation was the primary driver of growth.
March hydro output stood at 16 TWh, up 10.3% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year. For the full quarter, hydro generation reached 47.3 TWh, a 5.3% year-on-year increase.
Thermal generation remains stable
Thermal generation –-which includes coal and gas-fired plants – fell to 73.2 TWh in March, down 2% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year. However, for the full quarter, thermal output remained stable at 229 TWh, unchanged from Q1 2025.
Nuclear generation fell 7% year-on-year in March to 16.3 TWh, though quarterly nuclear output increased 4.4% to 54.4 TWh.
Limited impact on coal exports
The strong hydro performance in Russia has reduced pressure on thermal generation for domestic power needs. However, thermal output remained stable for the quarter, suggesting coal production and export volumes may not be significantly affected.
Russian coal continues to find buyers in Asian markets, including China and India, where it remains competitively priced. The country’s ability to maintain thermal generation while hydro gains is a positive sign for supply stability.
Outlook
The quarterly data indicates that Russia’s power sector is managing the transition between hydro and thermal generation without major disruptions. Coal exports are unlikely to be impacted by domestic power demand shifts in the near term.
Traders should continue to monitor Russian coal prices, which remain competitive in Asian markets, particularly for Chinese buyers seeking discount arbitrage opportunities.
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