Nornickel, the world’s largest producer of palladium and highgrade nickel and a major producer of platinum and copper presents the review of the nickel and platinum group metals (PGM) markets based on the fundamental analysis of world economic and industry data. The company accounts for about 20% of global production of high-grade nickel, which is vital for electric vehicle batteries.
What will be the scenario of Nickel market in 2022
Global primary nickel production may grow 19% in 2022 to 3.21 mnt and the nickel deficit of 2021 should swing to a mild surplus of about 40,000 t (estimated) in 2022, mostly comprising low-grade metal. For now, the company sees refined nickel production to increase this year on the overwhelming growth of Indonesian nickel pig iron, or NPI, capacities.
However, Prices have remained elevated this year after a short squeeze forced the London Metals Exchange to shut trading down on March 8, after prices rose to over $100,000/t.
The company mentioned “Therefore, in our base case scenario, we expect the 2022 primary nickel demand growth to slow down to 11% at 3.17 million tonnes as opposed to the 2021 level of 17%, reflecting the current price environment, high inflation across major economies and uncertain macroeconomic outlook”.
Robust stainless output, particularly in Indonesia and China, will be coupled with the
ever growing nickel demand in batteries, SteelMint understands.
Surplus to increase beyond 2022
From the current perspective, Nornickel expects primary nickel production to increase further by 16% to more than 3.7 mnt in 2023.
In 2023, Nornickel expects the global market surplus to widen to 100,000 t predominantly in low -grade nickel, on the back of the new nickel pig iron capacities in Indonesia, coupled with the growing production of nickel chemicals and a further growth of Class 1 nickel and ferronickel output.
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