Australian thermal coal export shipments registered a 13% m-o-m increase to 18.2 mnt in Jan’22 as supply constraints from other origins compelled several Asian countries to rush to stock up on coal, CoalMint’s vessel line-up data reveals.
The Netherlands also saw a sharp rise in shipments amid apprehensions of gas supply from Russia being impacted from its political tensions with Ukraine.
A sharp rise in Australia’s exports shipments, however, was capped as strong winds and heavy swells disrupted coal loading at Newcastle Port.
Prices of 5500 NAR rose to $144/t, FOB, up 42% m-o-m, while prices of 6,000 NAR touched the $300/t-mark, marking it as one of the most expensive cargoes ever transacted.
Shipments to key Asian countries see highest rise
Japan: Australia’s coal export shipments to this country recorded the highest volume of 23% m-o-m to 8.4 mnt last month, CoalMint data showed. Following the Indonesian coal export ban, power utilities in Japan scrambled to secure supplies from Australia, while LNG prices remained escalated. Severe cold weather in the country had raised electricity demand while domestic utilities filled the supply gap created by Indonesia.
South Korea: Australian export shipments to South Korea were largely unchanged at 3.7 mnt in Jan’22.
India: Volumes to India were recorded at 1 mnt in Jan’22, up 14% m-o-m on the back of increased demand from cement manufacturers. Several reloaded Australian coal cargoes from China also made their way to the country being relatively cheaper.
Vietnam: Exports shipments to Vietnam, however, fell by 8% m-o-m to 0.62 mnt due to its rising domestic coal production.
Gas crisis in Netherlands lifts coal demand
Scarce supply of Russian gas since last year had created a sharp rise in coal demand in the Netherlands, which was known to have predominantly switched away from coal-fired power generation. After a break of nearly three months, Australian coal shipments to the country rose to 0.23 mn t in Jan’22. With limited coal supply from Indonesia and South Africa, and Russia, traders had little option but to buy from Australia last month.
Short-term outlook
With supply constraints from major exporters like Indonesia and South Africa still persisting, Australian coal demand is likely to remain supported in the coming months. The rising global coal prices, may, however, limit any major increase.
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