- Japanese import costs remain higher by modest amount
- India’s bulk HRC imports decline by 42% y-o-y in Oct’25
India’s hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices continue to be lower than the landed costs of imports from China, as well as Japan, following the imposition of the 12% safeguard duty. The safeguard duty has lifted import costs, helping domestic HRCs retain a pricing edge and reducing buyers’ interest in overseas sourcing, thereby strengthening the domestic market.
The additional duty is added to the prices of imports of specific non-alloy and alloy steel flat products if the tags are below a threshold price. For HRC imports, this threshold has been set at $675/tonne (t) CIF.
India’s imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers from China stood at around $495/t CFR India, while those from Japan stood at $510/t CFR India on 14 October 2025. Both were calculated to be below the threshold price, thereby necessitating the imposition of the safeguard duty.
Domestic HRC prices
BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) placed domestic HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) at INR 47,600/t ($537/t) on 4 November 2025, inching up by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w against INR 47,400 ($534/t) on 28 October. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
Following a subdued period caused by weak demand and a festive lull, sentiment in the HRC market is gradually turning positive. Market participation improved after the Diwali holidays, lifting prices slightly. Expectations of November list price hikes, along with constrained supply from blast furnace (BF) and hot strip mill (HSM) outages and a modest demand recovery, are also likely to support this uptrend.
Price gap analysis
The landed cost calculation for Chinese- and Japanese-origin imported HRCs into India involves several components. Current base prices are taken as $495/t CFR for China and $510/t CFR for Japan. For Chinese imports, a 7.5% Basic Customs Duty (BCD) and a 0.75% cess (10% of BCD) are applied, taking the effective cost to $536/t, while Japanese imports attract no BCD due to the presence of a free-trade agreement (FTA), so the cost remains $510/t (table below for reference).
At a conversion rate of INR 88.16/USD, these values translate to INR 47,495/t for China and INR 45,191/t for Japan. However, as both these figures are below the threshold import price of $675/t, a safeguard duty of 12% and an additional cess of 1.2% (10% of safeguard duty) are levied, amounting to an additional duty of $71/t for China and $67/t for Japan (i.e., 13.2% of the respective import value).
This brings the post-duty cost to $607/t for China and $577/t for Japan, or INR 53,786/t and INR 51,128/t, respectively. Adding INR 2,000/t for port handling and miscellaneous charges, the final landed cost comes to INR 55,786/t for Chinese HRCs and INR 53,128/t for Japanese HRCs.
When compared with the domestic HRC price of INR 47,850/t (ex-Mumbai, excluding GST), Japanese import costs are higher by a modest amount, while there is a wide gap with Chinese material.
Bulk HRC imports
India’s bulk hot-rolled coils (HRC) imports in October 2025 totalled 391,856 t, a decline of 42% y-o-y from 670,232 t in October 2024, according to BigMint data. Moreover, imports dropped by 16% m-o-m against 464,694 t in September 2025. Adequate domestic stocks and limited demand continued to weigh on import sentiment in the previous month.
In October 2025, South Korea, Japan and China emerged as India’s top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 160,889 t, 117,149 t, and 73,844 t, respectively.
Outlook
Domestic HRCs are likely to remain more cost-competitive than Chinese and Japanese imports, with the safeguard duty and BCD keeping import prices high. However, a gradual post-festive demand recovery, anticipated November list price hikes, and limited supply due to BF/HSM maintenance may lead to modest domestic price increases.
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