- Coal freight sees nominal increase
- Port stock reportedly rises w-o-w
Indonesian thermal coal prices at key Indian ports recorded a marginal decline during the week ending 11 July 2025, as weak industrial demand and subdued market sentiment persisted.
According to BigMint’s latest assessment, the 5000 GAR dropped by INR 250/tonne (t), settling at INR 7,150/t at Kandla and INR 7,050/t at Vizag. The 4200 GAR also saw a minor correction of INR 50/t, priced at INR 5,700/t at Kandla and INR 5,600/t at Vizag.
In contrast, the lower calorific value segment remained unchanged, with the 3400 GAR grade holding steady at INR 4,300/t at Navlakhi Port. The modest fluctuations across grades indicate an overall stable pricing environment, supported by balanced portside inventories and restrained buying activity.
Inventory levels suggest balanced market conditions
Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports stood at 15.92 million tonnes (mnt) in week 27, marginally higher than the 15.86 mnt recorded in the previous week. The incremental rise reflects a balance between consistent arrivals and sluggish offtake, which remains hampered by the ongoing monsoon season.
Freight rates inch up on weather-induced delays
Coal freight rates from East Kalimantan to Navlakhi increased by $0.21/t w-o-w to $14.11/t. The rise is attributed to longer voyage times and adverse weather conditions typical during India’s monsoon period which have disrupted shipping schedules. Elevated freight costs have added further pressure on buyers, who are already wary of overstocking amid soft demand, leading to cautious procurement behaviour.
Power plant stocks remain adequate despite decline
Coal inventories at Indian power plants declined to 59.88 mnt as of 9 July 2025, from 61.18 mnt in the previous week. Despite the drop, stock levels remain sufficient to support approximately 20 days of electricity generation under standard operating conditions. This ensures short-term energy security for utilities, even as procurement activity slows during the monsoon season.
However, coal stock distribution remains uneven. Thirteen power stations reported critically low coal stocks. Of these seven are dependent on domestic supply, five on imported coal, and one on washery rejects. These supply gaps reflect persistent logistical challenges and inefficiencies in coal movement and allocation, especially for plants reliant on imported fuel.
Global market sees mixed price movements
Internationally, Indonesian thermal coal prices showed a divergent trend across grades. The 5800 GAR rose by $0.70/t w-o-w to $72.13/t, suggesting intermittent market support despite overarching bearish sentiment. The 4200 GAR grade edged up by $0.10/t to $40.21/t, likely due to opportunistic spot buying or short-term logistical bottlenecks. Meanwhile, the 3400 GAR also posted a marginal increase of $0.37/t to $28.53/t.
These variations highlight the ongoing volatility in the global coal market, driven by oversupply concerns, fluctuating regional demand, and logistical factors affecting supply chains.
Cautious outlook amid seasonal and market headwinds
The outlook for Indonesian thermal coal in the Indian market remains cautious. Despite adequate inventories at ports and power plants ensuring short-term supply, market activity is likely to stay muted due to seasonal demand weakness, logistical challenges, and freight volatility.
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