- Paddy production could decline by 750,000 metric tons due to El Niño
- The Philippines has imported 3.3 million tonnes of rice as of August 3
The Philippines has confirmed that it will not suspend rice imports this year as the country prepares for the potential impact of a strong El Niño event that could reduce domestic rice production and tighten supplies.
According to the Department of Agriculture, the anticipated El Niño, expected to develop later this year, could lower the country’s paddy production by around 750,000 metric tons, increasing the risk of supply shortages before the dry-season harvest in early 2027.
The country’s rice demand was 13.57 million metric tons last year, exceeding domestic supply of 12.40 million metric tons.
Government Prioritises Food Security and Rice Reserves
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said the government aims to maintain sufficiently large rice reserves ahead of the next harvest to strengthen preparedness against possible supply shortages.
The decision marks a shift from last year, when the Philippines suspended rice imports from September to December to support domestic paddy prices during the main harvest season.
As of August 3, the Philippines had imported 3.3 million tonnes of rice. To reduce the impact of continued imports on local farmers, the government has directed the National Food Authority (NFA) to procure 500,000 metric tons of paddy during this year’s wet-season harvest.
Vietnamese Exporters Welcome Import Continuity
Last year’s temporary import suspension disrupted delivery schedules for Vietnamese rice exporters, forcing some companies to seek alternative markets in Africa and the Middle East.
A rice exporting company in Vietnam’s Dong Thap Province said the Philippines’ decision to continue imports would make it easier for exporters to negotiate contracts for shipments later this year. The company added that demand in the Philippine market remains steady, particularly for Vietnam’s fragrant rice varieties due to their competitive prices and consistent quality.
Philippines Remains Vietnam’s Largest Rice Market
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the country exported 5.5 million tonnes of rice during the first seven months of the year, generating US$2.64 billion in export revenue. Export volume increased 0.5% year-on-year, while export value declined 6.7%.
The Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest rice export market, accounting for 45% of total exports, followed by China (19.1%) and Ghana (9.6%).
Outlook
The Philippines’ decision to keep rice imports open is expected to provide continuity for exporters planning shipments during the remainder of the year. With El Niño posing a risk to domestic paddy production, the government’s focus on maintaining adequate rice reserves suggests import demand is likely to remain supported ahead of the early 2027 dry-season harvest.
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