- Short-term buying improves ahead of Ramadan-driven slowdown
- Gadani ship-recycling strength supports overall sentiment
Imported shredded scrap offers into Pakistan inched down by $3/t w-o-w to around $380-382/t CFR Qasim, as assessed on 10 February. The EU-origin shredded scrap assessment stood at $382/t CFR Qasim, down by $1/t w-o-w.
However, workable levels are now closer to $380-382/t CFR, with several trades heard around $385/t CFR. This short-term lift is largely driven by pre-Ramadan buying, as Ramadan begins on 17 February and market participants are rushing to complete procurement before business activity typically slows. As a result, demand has picked up slightly for now, reflecting timing-led buying rather than a fundamental improvement in underlying consumption.
Market comments
Market sentiment in Pakistan remains positive, with demand on a firm upward trajectory, according to a local scrap trader, while India is active at lower price levels. Indicative offers for UK shredded are heard at $383-385/t CFR Port Qasim, compared with around $375/t CFR West Coast India. Regional availability is tightening as UK/EU shredded and HMS 80:20 cargoes increasingly move to Turkiye in bulk.
A major trading house noted the government’s announced 14% power tariff cut, expected to lift steelmakers’ margins once formal approvals are completed–likely within two weeks. If passed through, steel prices could ease by nearly PKR 3,000/t ($11/t). The shredded market has already softened, with offers slipping to $380/t from $385/t.
However, a steelmaker cautioned that any price reduction hinges on policy implementation, with no near-term correction expected until an official notification and clearer demand signals. Current indications show UK shredded at $378-382/t and UAE material at $390-395/t. Domestic prices stand at rebar PKR 222,000-225,000/t ($794-805/t), billet PKR 195,000/t ($697/t), bala PKR 183,000-185,000/t ($654-662/t), and local scrap PKR 138,000-140,000/t ($494-501/t).
Gadani outperformed the region, clinching multiple Panamax and handy bulker vessels at firm levels, reportedly above $400/LDT. Support came from steel plate prices rising by nearly $8/t (to $597/t)-the strongest regionally. The delivery of a 7,000 LDT vessel and the approval of Pakistan’s second HKC-certified yard further bolstered market confidence and long-term competitiveness.
Outlook
Imported scrap prices in Pakistan are likely to stay range-bound in the next week. Offers are hovering around $380-382/t, while buyers are more comfortable at $375-376/t, leaving a noticeable gap between expectations on both sides.
Mill activity is already moderate, with capacity utilisation at 40-45%, and this is expected to fall further to around 20% during Ramadan as operations slow. With the market set to close from 18 February until the end of the month, and activity resuming after 1 March 2025, buying interest is likely to remain quiet for now — more due to seasonal factors than any major shift in fundamentals.
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