In a recent development, Citi has lowered its forecast for New Castle thermal coal prices for 2017 on the prospect of weakening demand. Citi also believes that the global seaborne market could become more volatile in the long run.
Citi expects New Castle 6,000 KCAL/KG NAR price during 2017 to average at USD 76/MT FoB, which is down from its previous forecast at USD 78/MT FoB. At the same time, Citi also did not rule out some support to the prices during the summer season on account of restocking by the thermal power plants in China and India.
Also, with the easing of production cuts in China, the global seaborne coal market could become more volatile in the long run, Citi expects. At the same time, the potential decline in Indian import demand is also likely to impact the seaborne market, according to Citi.
In the Indian context, Citi forecasts thermal coal imports to decline to around 155 MnT by FY20.
Leave a Reply