Near-term outlook on China’s steel products

• HRC prices to fluctuate; output drops to 1-month low
• Longs may be range-bound amid cautious sentiment

Mysteel Global: Below is the brief near-term outlook for five key steel products Mysteel shares on a weekly basis, drawing upon the results of related surveys and communication with Chinese market participants.

Rebar, wire rod: Prices of the two long steel products are likely to be narrowly range-bound over 14-18 April, with mills’ output growing marginally, while downstream demand is expected to pick up further. Market sentiment is cautious amid the uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions.

Hot-rolled coil: Prices are expected to continuously fluctuate in the week through 18 April. Although market pressure has eased to some extent on slow arrivals of HRC supplies and improved trading in the spot market, many market participants still hold a wait-and-watch stance towards the market outlook.

HRC production among the 37 steel producers Mysteel tracks nationwide declined for the second week over 3-9 April, with the pace quickening to 2.9% from the prior week, and the volume reached a one-month low of 3.1 million tonnes (mnt).

Cold-rolled coil: Prices are projected to be largely stable during the week ending 18 April, with CRC production remaining steady and end-users acting cautiously toward procurement.

Both CRC stocks among mills and at traders’ warehouses mounted higher last week, with the volume at the 29 mills Mysteel monitors gaining by 0.9% w-o-w to 385,800 tonnes (t) as of 10 April, while the tonnage held among traders in 26 cities Mysteel follows rose 1.4% during the same period to 1.2 mnt.

Medium plate: Prices are estimated to see mild volatility during 14-18 April. A source in North China notes slow progress in local infrastructure projects and lacklustre orders from the manufacturing sector. Most market traders are bearish about the market direction in the short run amid uncertainties.

Sections: Prices of steel sections are forecast to rise slightly this week, propped up by the gradual recovery in downstream demand as the weather becomes more pleasant, and resilient prices of steelmaking raw materials may also lend some support to section prices.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.