Middle East war seen having little impact on China’s coke exports

• China’s coke exports to Persian Gulf countries comprise 4% of total
• Freights to EU may rise over potential Houthi disruptions in Red Sea

Mysteel Global: Escalating tensions in the Middle East are expected to have a limited impact on China’s coke exports, given the small volume the country’s ships to the region compared with total shipments globally, according to Mysteel’s latest market survey.

As the world’s largest exporter of coke, China shipped 7.94 million tonnes (mnt) of the raw material for all uses to worldwide destinations last year, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs. However, over 87% of the total was supplied to customers in Northeast, South and Southeast Asia, the customs data show.

In comparison, the volume shipped to six countries around the Persian Gulf (namely Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman) reached only 326,456 tonnes (t) last year, accounting for 4.1% of China’s total exports.

“Considering the limited trading between China and the region, any direct impact from the Iran tensions on China’s coke exports will remain under control,” an industry analyst suggested.

Beyond the Middle East, the potential exists for a ripple effect on China’s coke exports to Europe, although the influence is also expected to be minimal due to the similarly small scale of coke trading between China and Europe.

During 2025, China’s coke exports to the 27 countries of the European Union reached 215,846 t, 2.7% of the total, Mysteel Global calculated based on the GACC data.

However, risks come from the possibility that Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen will resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, a pivotal route for Chinese freighters to Europe.

For safety, many shipping companies may choose to detour around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, despite the costs involved in a longer journey. For example, a vessel travelling via the Cape from the Port of Shanghai to the Port of Rotterdam — one of the largest ports in Europe for bulk commodities — would see its shipping time increase by 10-12 days compared with the traditional Red Sea route, Mysteel Global learnt.

“While the Iran tensions have lifted global freights and oil prices, a longer transit time indicates even higher premiums, which will dent the interest of European buyers in Chinese coke,” the analyst observed.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.