LME lead prices hold steady as inventories continue decline

• SHFE, MCX prices remain range-bound amid limited demand
• Exide invests INR 80 crore in battery manufacturing subsidiary

The lead market, both globally and in India, remained range-bound during Week 39 (22-26 September 2025). LME lead prices were supported by tightening inventories, while global economic cues and cautious demand from the battery sector kept gains limited. Domestic MCX lead futures mirrored global trends, with muted volatility amid subdued battery demand.

Price trends, inventories

LME lead cash-settlement prices opened at $2,003/t on 22 September and closed slightly lower at $2,000/t on 26 September, marking a 0.15% decline. The three-month contract ended the week at $1,995/t, down 0.25% from the previous week.

LME inventories continued their downtrend, reaching 219,425 t by 26 September, down 1% from 221,675 t on 22 September. This ongoing decline signals tighter supply, providing underlying support to prices. Meanwhile, Chinese social inventories of lead ingots remained elevated at 105,000-107,000 t, reflecting weak downstream battery sector demand.

MCX lead trends (22-26 September)

Domestic lead futures opened at INR 182,400/t on 22 September, touched a mid-week high of INR 183,000/t, and settled at INR 182,300/t on 26 September, down 0.1%. Rupee fluctuations and restrained demand from Indian battery manufacturers influenced price movements.

SHFE lead trend

SHFE lead prices maintained a fluctuating trend during the week but ended slightly weaker. The most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at RMB 17,180/t on 22 September and closed at RMB 17,110/t on 26 September, down 0.41%. While pre-holiday stockpiling initially supported prices, the completion of stockpiling and weaker-than-expected actual consumption led to downward pressure and overall fluctuation.

India battery sector updates

• Ashok Leyland has entered a 20-year partnership with China’s CALB Group to develop lithium-ion battery technology in India. Initially, cells will be imported and assembled domestically, with a long-term goal of self-reliance in battery design and manufacturing.
• Exide Industries invested INR 80 crore in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Exide Energy Solutions Ltd (EESL), supporting a greenfield lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility in Bengaluru. The investment, via a rights issue, increases total capital in the unit to INR 3,882.23 crore, with EIL retaining 100% ownership.

Outlook

The near-term lead market outlook remains cautious. The completion of pre-holiday stockpiling in China and the perception of weak underlying consumption suggest potential price pressure. Global economic signals, particularly from the US, will continue to drive market volatility. Demand trends and inventory movements in both the LME and Chinese markets will provide further direction.