- Rally remains fuelled by tight concentrates, collapsing TC/RCs
- Strong Chinese buying interest continues to lend support
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by about $102/t or 0.76% w-o-w to around $13,600/t in the week ended 15 May 2026 from $13,498/t a week ago, supported by tightening global supply conditions, firm Chinese buying interest and continued concerns over concentrate availability.
Prices remained firm during the week, with copper rallying toward record-high territory amid tight concentrate supply, low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), and continued disruptions across key producing regions. Strong speculative and fund buying further supported overall market sentiment.
At the same time, market participants closely monitored ongoing tariff-related trade flows and shifting global copper inventories, as tighter nearby availability and supply relocation towards the US market continued tightening spot conditions across international markets.
However, intermittent profit-booking and cautious downstream buying activity at elevated levels limited sharper upside momentum. Market participants also remained watchful of refined market surplus expectations and improving refined output trends in China, which continued exerting some pressure on broader sentiment.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued uncertainty around key shipping and raw material supply routes remained supportive for copper prices, particularly amid concerns over sulphuric acid supply and logistics-related disruptions.
Overall, tightening concentrate supply, firm Chinese demand, and geopolitical risks continued underpinning copper prices, although cautious physical buying activity and intermittent profit-booking restricted more aggressive gains during the week.
Global updates
Aurubis raises FY2025-26 earnings guidance
Aurubis raised its FY2025-26 operating earnings before tax (EBT) guidance to $497-614 million from $439-556 million earlier, supported by stronger recycling margins, firm sulphuric acid revenues, and elevated metal prices. The company’s Q2 copper concentrate throughput increased 4% y-o-y to 620,000 t, while recycled copper cathode output rose 5% to 133,000 t, highlighting continued strength in recycling and processing operations.
Grasberg recovery timeline maintained
Freeport-McMoRan reaffirmed that Indonesia’s Grasberg copper mine is expected to resume full production by end-2027, pushing back against recent reports suggesting a delay into 2028. The mine is currently operating at around 40-50% capacity following last year’s mudflow incident, while tight concentrate availability and low TC/RCs continue supporting global copper market sentiment.
India updates
India’s brass honey scrap market remained firm w-o-w, supported by tight imported scrap availability, elevated overseas offers, and stronger Chinese demand for non-ferrous scrap. Supply constraints from Europe, the US, and the Middle East, along with higher replacement costs, continued supporting domestic market sentiment despite cautious buying at elevated levels.
On the imports side, EU-origin brass honey scrap into Nhava Sheva was heard around 59.5% of 3M LME, while buyers largely continued procurement on a need-based basis amid limited bulk bookings.
Meanwhile, India’s copper market also remained firm, supported by elevated LME copper prices above the $14,000/t mark and tighter nearby global availability. Market participants closely monitored tariff-related trade flows and supply relocation toward the US market, which continued supporting imported copper offers and domestic replacement costs.
Outlook
Copper’s outlook remains supported, driven by tightening concentrate availability, low TC/RCs, firm Chinese buying interest, and continued geopolitical uncertainty across key supply routes. Tight nearby availability and shifting trade flows toward the US market are also likely to keep copper prices supported in the near term.
However, intermittent profit-booking, cautious downstream buying, and improving refined output in China may limit sharper upside momentum. As a result, copper prices are expected to remain firm to volatile in the near term.
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