- Tight stocks offset improvements in Peruvian mine supply
- LME inventories drop by more than 20% since end of May’26
LME copper traded firm in the week ended 24 July 2026 as tight inventories outweighed the relief from improving Peruvian mine supply. LME three-month copper rose about 1.1% w-o-w to around $13,600/tonne (t), supported by continued draws in exchange stocks and steady physical buying.
Notably, LME warehouse stocks have fallen by more than 20% since the end of May, showing that refined copper is still being pulled into end-use channels rather than building up in storage. This kept the physical market tight and helped LME prices extend gains even though the rally did not turn into a sharp breakout.
Supply news from Peru offered some relief, but not enough to change the broader market tone. Peru’s copper output rose 2.3% y-o-y in May to about 226,096 t, and production for the first five months of 2026 was up 3.3% to 1.14 million tonnes (mnt). Even so, weaker output from Chilean mines continued to limit overall mine supply growth, so the extra Peruvian volumes only partly offset the shortfall.
The physical market also remained firm because traders kept watching US tariff developments. Media reports continue to indicate that tariff uncertainty is distorting copper flows, with material moving towards the US and leaving availability tighter in other regions. That helped keep premiums supported and made the market more sensitive to regional supply imbalances.
Global copper production
According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market recorded a preliminary surplus of 221,000 t during January-May 2026, nearly double the 117,000 t surplus reported during the corresponding period of 2025. Combined inventories across the London Metal Exchange (LME), COMEX, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) climbed to 1.1 mnt by the end of June, their highest level since 2003. Under normal market conditions, a widening surplus and rising inventories would weigh on prices. Instead, copper has remained comfortably above $13,000/t.
South Korea joins global shift towards tighter scrap export governance
South Korea’s Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment has proposed bringing copper scrap, iron scrap, and other non-ferrous metal scrap under the country’s mandatory waste export declaration framework, strengthening oversight of recyclable metal exports. The amendment, currently under public consultation until 5 August 2026, is scheduled to take effect on 1 January 2027.
India updates
As per BigMint’s assessment, ex-Mumbai copper cathode prices rose to around INR 1,348,000/t on 23 July from nearly INR 1,320,000/t last week. Similarly, Ahmedabad prices increased to around INR 1,350,000/t from approximately INR 1,322,000/t over the same period.
On the demand side, buying interest remained healthy, but actual conversions into deals were limited. Wire rod manufacturers, cable producers, and brass fabricators continued to purchase only against confirmed orders, avoiding large-volume bookings due to the recent price surge. Many buyers preferred to wait for prices to stabilise before rebuilding inventories.
Domestic copper cathode prices are expected to remain firm in the coming weeks, supported by elevated LME prices, tight global copper concentrate availability, and higher import costs. However, buying activity is likely to stay limited to immediate requirements as consumers remain cautious amid elevated prices and ongoing uncertainty over the proposed US copper import tariffs.
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