LME base metals prices edge up d-o-d; zinc lags on rising Chinese output

  • Zinc pressured by rising China production data
  • India reduces Russian oil imports amid sanctions

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed positive momentum in the latest session, with gains in aluminium, nickel, copper, and lead, while zinc edged slightly lower. Aluminium prices rose 0.73% to $2,961/t, supported by firm sentiment, while nickel advanced 0.30% to $15,786/t. Copper prices increased 0.85% to $12,163/t, extending recent strength, and lead firmed by 0.61% to $1,995/t. In contrast, zinc prices slipped marginally by 0.10% to $3,091/t.

LME warehouse inventories were also mixed. Aluminium stocks rose 0.28% to 521,050 t, while nickel inventories increased 0.43% to 255,696 t. Zinc stocks recorded a sharp rise of 7.98% to 106,875 t. Meanwhile, copper inventories declined by 0.98% to 157,025 t, and lead stocks fell more steeply by 1.66% to 248,900 t.

Domestic market overview

In India’s non-ferrous markets, BigMint assessed copper armature scrap at INR 1,055,000/t ex-Delhi, up by INR 40,000/t d-o-d. Meanwhile, aluminium Tense scrap prices remained stable d-o-d at INR 197,000/t ex-Delhi and INR 190,000/t ex-Chennai, respectively.

Other market updates

Copper surges to record highs in 2025 on supply tightness, energy transition demand

Copper prices have rallied about 50% in 2025 to record levels above $12,000/t on the LME, marking their strongest performance since 2009. The gains have been driven by supply disruptions at major mines, pre-emptive shipments to the US ahead of possible tariffs, and strong demand from power grids, green energy, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure. Broader base metals also turned bullish, and with supply tightness expected to persist into 2026, copper is likely to remain well supported.

Zinc prices ease on higher China output despite supply-side constraints

Zinc prices slipped marginally by 0.10% to $3,091/t, pressured by a sharp rise in Chinese output and lingering demand concerns. China’s zinc production rose 13.3% y-o-y in November to 654,000 t, while weak macro indicators — slower factory activity, softer retail sales, and continued stress in the property sector –highlighted fragile demand. However, downside was limited by thin year-end trading, a weaker US dollar, and supply-side risks, with several Chinese mines entering maintenance, potentially reducing concentrate output by around 700 t, while SHFE inventories fell 5.7% w-o-w.

India shifts oil imports away from Russia amid sanctions pressure in 2025

India’s crude oil imports from Russia fell 17.8% y-o-y during January-October 2025 as tighter EU rules and expanded US secondary sanctions increased compliance risks for refiners, according to a secondary report. The decline marks a shift from the post-Ukraine phase, when Indian buyers ramped up Russian purchases to benefit from deep discounts, with refiners now diversifying supplies towards the US and the UAE as sanctions enforcement intensified.