- Ex-China supply tightness lifted aluminium near four-year highs
- Profit-taking pressure emerged after aluminium’s sharp weekly rally
Benchmark aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 2.0% w-o-w in the week ended 15 May 2026, supported by firm global sentiment, tightening supply concerns and continued geopolitical risks across the Middle East.
Pricing, inventory trends
LME aluminium prices averaged around $3,609/t during the week, increasing by $76/t or 2.2% w-o-w from $3,533/t. Prices opened the week near $3,571/t, rose sharply to around $3,666/t during the week, and later eased to close near $3,580/t.
Meanwhile, LME aluminium inventories declined by 3.3% w-o-w to 344,000 t from 355,775 t, indicating continued drawdown in exchange stocks, which continued supporting the overall aluminium market sentiment.
Factors impacting prices
Market sentiment remained firm to volatile during the week, with LME aluminium prices rallying toward four-year highs amid tightening ex-China supply conditions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving macroeconomic sentiment. Strong cash aluminium prices and firm nearby market conditions continued supporting the broader upward momentum across the aluminium complex.
LME aluminium cash offers remained firm during the week before easing marginally amid softer trade activity and intermittent profit-booking at elevated levels. Market participants closely monitored resistance levels near $3,600/t-$3,650/t, while technical momentum remained broadly supportive despite periodic corrections.
The upside in aluminium prices continued receiving support from persistent supply disruptions outside China, particularly concerns surrounding Gulf-region logistics and tightening physical availability across key markets. Falling LME inventories and continued drawdowns in exchange stocks further reinforced the bullish undertone, indicating constrained spot metal availability.
At the same time, improving macroeconomic sentiment and firm non-ferrous market performance supported buying interest across the complex. However, improving Chinese aluminium output, rising exports and inventory-related pressure limited sharper upside momentum during the week.
Overall, the aluminium market remained fundamentally supported, with tight physical availability, strong cash market conditions and ongoing geopolitical risks underpinning prices, although periodic profit-booking and improving Chinese supply trends capped more aggressive gains.
Outlook
LME aluminium prices are expected to remain firm to volatile in the near term, supported by falling exchange inventories, tight physical availability and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Strong cash market conditions are likely to continue underpinning overall market sentiment.
However, intermittent profit-booking, softer trade activity and improving Chinese aluminium supply may limit sharper upside momentum in the near term.
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