- Aluminium stocks advance at LME storage hubs
- US tariffs keep aluminium premiums elevated
London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices stood range-bound during Week 33 of CY’25 (11-15 Aug 2025).
LME aluminium inventories recorded an uptick, exerting downward pressure on prices and reinforcing bearish market sentiment. The modest build-up in stockpiles, coupled with persistent global trade uncertainties, heightened concerns over the demand outlook and weighed further on overall market confidence.
As a result, investors turned cautious, opting to hold back until stronger macroeconomic signals provided clarity on future trends. This wait-and-watch approach reflects the broader uncertainty in the market, where any fresh economic cues will play a crucial role in shaping price direction.
Price performance, inventory trends
LME aluminium prices hovered around $2,609/tonne (t) in Week 33, marking a 0.79% increase from Week 32 (04-08 August). Prices opened lower during the start of the week, at 2,592/t levels, but gradually gained strength towards the end of the week, settling around $2,607/t.
Meanwhile, aluminium stocks at registered warehouses saw inflows rise by 1.92%, to 479,550 t in Week 33 from 470,575 t in Week 32.
Market highlights
China’s aluminium imports rose 38.2% y-o-y in July to 0.36 million tonnes (mnt), lifting the total for January-July 2025 by 1.5% to 2.33 mnt. Bauxite imports also surged 34.2% y-o-y in July to 20.06 mnt, bringing the January-July 2025 total to 123.26 mnt, a 33.7% y-o-y increase.
Additionally, China’s aluminium output rose 1.05% y-o-y and 3.11% m-o-m in July, but downside pressure was contained by expectations of stronger demand and tighter supply. European supply remained restricted due to Russian sanctions, while US tariffs sustained elevated premiums despite speculation of possible relaxations.
Japan’s port stocks fell 0.4% m-o-m, highlighting supply tightness, while China’s unwrought aluminium exports climbed up by 10.8% m-o-m to 0.542 mnt in July, and imports in June surged 24.1% y-o-y to 0.3 mnt.
Outlook
Aluminium prices are likely to stay under pressure amid rising inventories and ongoing trade tensions, though potential supply disruptions or supportive macroeconomic developments could provide some limited near-term upside.
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