Japan’s Steel Industry Forecast for Jan-March’2018 Quarter: METI

The forecasts of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) for fourth quarter of fiscal year 2017-18 are out and the summary of country’s crude steel production, steel demand, and exports is as below:

Crude Steel Forecast

It has been estimated that crude steel output of the country would stand at 26.4 MnT in Q4 (i.e. during Jan to Mar’18). This is about 0.9% lower than the previous quarter, Q3 of FY18 and 0.8% higher than the corresponding quarter of previous fiscal 2016-17.

Japan’s total crude steel output for FY18 is estimated to stand at 105.08 MnT, a decline of 0.1% against the previous fiscal year’s crude steel output of 105.17 MnT.

As informed by the METI officials, although the country’s steel demand has been strong in both domestic and overseas market, the Japanese steelmakers had to deal with technical troubles and longer maintenance problems resulting in interrupted supplies.

Steel Demand Estimates

METI has also forecasted that the country’s demand for steel products in Q4 FY 18 (January – March 2018) is expected to stand at 23.62 MnT, a decrease of 1.4% against the corresponding period of the previous FY17.

According to METI, although the steel demand from public and private engineering work is expected to be steady due to increased capital investments, the demand from housing sector is forecasted to decline in Q4 FY18 against the Q4 of previous fiscal.

Japan’s steel demand from shipbuilding sector is estimated to decline by 4.7% in Q4 FY18 against Q4 FY17. The demand from industrial sector is estimated to improve by 1.4% whereas; the demand from automobile sector is projected to remain flat.

Exports

Japan’s exports are estimated to decline by 2.8% in Q4 FY18 over the period as the steelmakers prioritize domestic market over exports due to tightening of domestic supply, the ministry said.

Japan’s Quarterly Steel Demand Forecast

Source:  Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan