Japan’s domestic rebar demand in the fiscal year of 2022 (April 2022-March 2023) is expected to increase by a tiny 0.5% on year to 6.8 million tonnes, according to the latest forecast released by the country’s Non-Integrated Steel Producers’ Association. This will be the first on-year rise in four years but the third consecutive year to below 7 million tonnes, according to the organization.
The forecast is based on the orders data from Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF) and the data of newly-launched buildings from Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). And the initial forecast was about 6.95 million tonnes.
In the initial forecast, rebar demand from Japan’s construction sector was estimated around 4.97 million tonnes, and that from the civil engineering sector was about 1.3 million tonnes, and the balance for other sectors.
But the organization took rising energy prices amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the shortage of construction workers from Japan’s COVID-19 outbreaks into consideration, and thus adjusted the forecast to almost the same level of the last fiscal year, an official from the organization explained.
A Tokyo-based construction steel trader shared that he had expected Japanese rebar demand in the current fiscal year to become lower, as the country’s recent severe summer heat may delay the actual progress of construction activities, and also because high-priced construction materials including steel may force some projects to be delayed or even canceled.
“We hear that some major construction works across Japan will become active in autumn, and we believe the progress for such projects will be on schedule. But we’re afraid that other small/medium-sized projects will be rescheduled, and it may affect the actual rebar demand,” he said.
Meanwhile, the latest data from MLIT showed that Japan’s newly-launched reinforced-concrete buildings (which consume more rebars) over January-May approximated 9.94 million sq m, up 6.6% on year. And the actual steel demand usually appears six months after the launch, Mysteel Global notes.
Written by Yoko Manabe, yoko.manabe@mysteel.com
Note: This article has been published in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and SteelMint.
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