- April-June marks 4th consecutive quarter of output decline
- Sluggish automotive demand, exports weigh on production
Japan Metal Daily: Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) has unveiled its production plan for the April-June 2025 quarter, projecting a 4.3% y-o-y decrease in crude steel production to 20.33 million tonnes (mnt). This marks the fourth consecutive quarter where production has fallen below the corresponding period of the previous year, signalling persistent challenges in both domestic and international markets. Manufacturers are expected to maintain a cautious approach throughout the current fiscal year, aligning production closely with actual demand.
Stagnant domestic demand: According to METI, the demand environment for the current fiscal year is expected to remain similar to the January-March 2025 period. Despite a recovery in automobile production, sales have remained sluggish. This lack of robust domestic demand is contributing to the overall cautious outlook on steel production.
Weak export performance: The production plan highlights particularly the weakness in exports. The softening of Asian markets, attributed to increased steel exports from China, is cited as a key factor. This decline in export demand is further dampening the overall strength of the steel market for Japanese manufacturers. METI also emphasised the need to monitor the impact of the evolving supply-demand balance in China and the trajectory of tariff policies in the United States, although initial feedback from manufacturers in late April or early May did not indicate significant immediate impacts.
Apr-Jun’25 production plan: The production plan for the April-June 2025 quarter outlines a total steel production of 17.86 mnt, comprising 13.99 mnt of ordinary steel and 3.87 mnt of special steel. This level remains consistent with the low production seen in the preceding January-March 2025 quarter, with an anticipated y-o-y decrease of 1.7% in total steel production.
The breakdown for ordinary steel indicates 8.87 mnt in domestic consumption and 5.12 mnt for exports. While these figures show a slight increase compared to the previous quarter, they represent a y-o-y decrease of 0.1% for domestic sales and a more significant 6.1% decline in exports.
In terms of specific product categories within the April-June plan, the production of H-beams is projected to reach 770,000 t, and small steel bars are expected to reach 1.72 mnt. Notably, compared to the January-March 2025 period, the planned production of H-beams showed an increase of approximately 60,000 t, and small steel bars are expected to increase by around 100,000 t.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.
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