Japan Metal Daily: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan, on 10 October 2024, announced its production plan for crude steel for the period of October to December, 2024 (Q4CY’24).
Crude steel production is expected to inch up by 0.9% to 21.3 million tonnes (mnt) in Q4CY’24 against July to September (Q3CY’24). This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of steel production at or above the 21 mnt volumes.
In addition, the domestic demand for automobiles has rebounded from earlier production cuts, but it has not been strong. Moreover, the construction and industrial machinery sectors continue to exhibit sluggishness, hindering overall steel product demand. The export market is also facing challenges.
“The increase in exports due to the deterioration of the supply-demand balance of steel products in China is affecting the supply, demand, and prices of the surrounding markets” says a METI official. Manabu Nabeshima, Director of the Metals Division of METI, emphasised the need for continued monitoring of this situation.
Demand for steel products
Steel demand in Q4CY’24 is projected to reach 19.31 mnt, reflecting a slight increase by 1.6% compared to the previous fiscal year but a 2.1% decline from the same period last year. Ordinary steel accounts for 15.44 mnt of this demand, with 10.14 mnt consumed domestically in Japan and 5.3 mnt exported. This marks a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter but a 1.9% decrease from the corresponding period of the previous year.
Conclusion
Domestic crude steel production in 2024 is projected to decline by approximately 2% to 85.11 mnt, marking the third consecutive year of decline. This forecast incorporates the demand outlook provided by the METI.
Crude steel production on a calendar year basis experienced a downward trend, falling to 83 mnt in 2020 during the pandemic. However, it rebounded to 96 mnt in 2021. Since then, production has once again dipped below 90 mnt, particularly in 2023 and 2024.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.
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