- Copper production falls below 1.5 mnt for first time in 14 years
- Zinc output drops under 0.4 mnt, lowest in 60 years
Japan Metal Daily: According to preliminary Production Dynamics Statistics released by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan’s base metal production weakened in FY25, with copper, zinc, and lead output all declining y-o-y amid smelter production cuts, weak exports, and deteriorating purchasing conditions.
Electric copper production declined 7.6% y-o-y to 1.43 mnt in FY25, marking the first annual decline in two years and falling below 1.5 mnt for the first time in 14 years. Shipments also decreased 6% y-o-y to 1.34 mnt, extending declines for a second consecutive year due to sluggish demand from electric wire applications and weaker exports. Production cuts at certain smelters in response to worsening raw material procurement conditions further weighed on output levels.
Zinc production dropped sharply by 15.6% y-o-y to 0.38 mnt, while shipments fell 16.5% to 0.38 mnt, marking the fourth consecutive annual decline in both categories. Output fell below 0.4 mnt for the first time in 60 years, primarily due to Toho Zinc’s withdrawal from the zinc smelting business at the end of March 2025, along with large-scale maintenance shutdowns at several smelters. Export weakness also pressured shipment volumes throughout the fiscal year.
Meanwhile, electric lead production declined marginally by 0.8% y-o-y to 0.18 mnt, extending its losing streak to six consecutive years. Shipments fell 5% y-o-y to 0.18 mnt, recording the first annual decline in two years amid weaker downstream demand conditions.
Despite the weaker annual performance, March 2025 data indicated some short-term recovery in copper activity. Electric copper production rose 2.9% y-o-y to 128,271 tons, while shipments increased 1.6% to 121,020 tons, marking the first monthly rise in six months. The improvement reflected stabilising domestic demand and slightly improved export activity.
In contrast, zinc market conditions remained under pressure in March. Zinc production fell 21.9% y-o-y to 27,076 tons, while shipments plunged 37.4% y-o-y to 24,113 tons, extending shipment declines to six consecutive months. The decline continued to reflect the impact of smelter closures and subdued export demand.
Electric lead production in March also weakened significantly, dropping 20.1% y-o-y to 9,066 tons, marking the first time in two years and one month that monthly production fell below 10,000 tons. However, shipments increased 8% y-o-y to 13,937 tons, recording the first monthly gain in 11 months.
Overall, Japan’s base metals sector in FY25 remained under pressure from structural changes in the smelting industry, maintenance-related disruptions, and weaker export demand. While copper showed signs of short-term recovery toward the fiscal year-end, the outlook for zinc and lead remains cautious amid ongoing capacity adjustments and subdued overseas demand.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between BigMint and Japan Metal Daily.
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