Japan’s ferrous scrap exports totalled 6.59 million tonnes (mnt) in CY’23, up 9% from 6.07 mnt in the corresponding period of the previous year. In December, there was a 23% rise in scrap exports, amounting to 0.58 mnt compared to 0.47 mnt in the preceding month. Similarly, the annualised data indicate a substantial 38% increase in export volumes, contrasting with the 0.42 mnt reported in December 2022.
Country-wise exports
South Korea: Scrap exports from Japan to South Korea witnessed a 17% decline, reaching 2.54 mnt in CY’23 compared to 3.06 mnt in CY’22. In December, scrap exports increased to 0.14 mnt, showing an 8% rise from the previous month’s 0.13 mnt. However, this figure represented a notable 33% decrease compared to the 0.21 mnt recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Vietnam: Vietnamese mills witnessed a surge in scrap imports from Japan, reaching about 1.68 mnt in CY’23. This marked a significant 28% increase compared to 1.31 mnt recorded in the same period of last year. Additionally, in December alone, Vietnamese scrap imports stood at 0.23 mnt, marking an impressive 53% m-o-m increase and an extraordinary 283% y-o-y growth.
Taiwan: In CY’23, Japanese scrap exports to Taiwan totaled 0.92 mnt, showcasing a notable 53% increase from the 0.6 mnt recorded in the previous year. For the month of December, scrap imports amounted to 0.08 mnt, reflecting a 33% increase compared to the 0.06 mnt in November. Additionally, in a y-o-y comparison with December 2022, imports demonstrated 14% growth compared to the reported 0.07 mnt.
It is noteworthy that there were no exports to Bangladesh in CY’22, whereas they reached 0.52 mnt in CY’23.
Japan’s H2 scrap export offer: Japan’s average monthly H2 scrap export offers stood at JPY 52,500/t ($353/t) in January, up by JPY 1,300/t ($9/t) against JPY 51,200/t ($345/t) in December.
Semi-finished exports: Japan’s billet exports remained largely stable y-o-y at 2.80 mnt in CY’23 as against 2.77 mnt in the year-ago period, as per Customs data. South Korea was the largest importer with 1.19 mnt followed by Taiwan with 703,362 t. However, export volumes fell by 1% m-o-m to 236,845 t in December from 240,015 t in November.
Outlook
Japan’s scrap imports are anticipated to remain range-bound in the near term. This projection is based on the expectation that South Korean mills will persist in sourcing from the domestic market due to the availability of cost-effective materials locally. Although Vietnam and Taiwan might engage in restocking activities in preparation for the Lunar New Year holidays and a more favourable domestic steel market, the absence of Korean buyers is anticipated to counterbalance export volumes to Vietnam and Taiwan.
