In Fiscal Year 2024, Japan’s demand for aluminum products is projected to reach 3.85 million tons (mnt), marking an increase for the first time in three years. This growth is primarily attributed to the revival in automobile production and semiconductor-related demand. Despite these positive trends, it’s anticipated that a full recovery won’t be realized, as demand for rolled aluminum products is expected to remain at 1.73 mnt, falling short of the 4 mnt target for the fifth consecutive year.
The Aluminum Research Committee, comprising seven industry organizations, announced on March 29th that total aluminum product demand in FY24 is expected to rise by 2.1% compared to the previous year. Notably, sales for automobiles are forecasted to increase by 3.7% to 1,680,150 t, while domestic demand (excluding exports) is estimated to grow by 2.0% to 3,687,450 t.
Breaking down the product categories, “rolled products” (excluding exports) are anticipated to reach 1,726,550 t, with plates increasing by 2.6% to 1,071,170 t, and extruded products decreasing slightly by 0.2% to 655,380 t. Sales of extrusions, mainly used in construction, are expected to decline due to heightened construction costs and concerns over rising mortgage rates.
In the automotive sector, a recovery is expected due to increased automobile production resulting from the semiconductor shortage resolution and gradual economic improvement. Specifically, sales of die-cast products for automobiles are forecasted to rise by 3.8% to 981,000 t, with similar growth rates for other automotive-related products.
Furthermore, there’s a projected increase in demand for electric wires, particularly for automobile applications, by 5.1%. However, forecasts for aluminum for steel deoxidation, powder, and other miscellaneous categories remain unchanged.
In FY23, total demand fell slightly by 0.6% compared to the previous year, reaching 3,768,634 t, below the forecast of 3.91 mnt. Despite the resilience in die-casting and casting products driven by the automotive sector, other segments such as canned materials and thick plates for semiconductor manufacturing equipment experienced sluggish demand. Additionally, building materials and foil fabrics faced stagnation, contributing to a decline in rolled goods demand by 4.9% to 1.7 mnt.
Note: This article has been published in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.