Iron ore exports of world’s top producing regions decline m-o-m in Feb’25; India bucks trend

• Australia’s exports fall 17% amid supply disruptions
• Brazil sees 3% dip on shift to higher-margin products

The world’s top iron ore-producing regions saw softer export volumes m-o-m in February 2025. However, India recorded a steep increase.

Australia sees sharp 17% m-o-m drop

• Australian iron ore and pellet export shipments fell significantly by 17% to 52.9 million tonnes (mnt) in February as compared to 63.9 mnt in January, as per vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint.
• China was the major importer with 45 mnt, followed by South Korea at 3.5 mnt and Japan at 2.5 mnt.
• Cumulative exports for January-February 2025 dipped by 8% to 116.8 mnt compared to 126.6 mnt in the year-ago period.
• February’s exports were subdued due to Cyclone Zelia-induced port closures, Rio Tinto’s Dampier Port shutdown, and flooding from Cyclone Sean. Weak global prices and adverse weather further impacted shipments, despite decent production levels.

Brazil’s exports dip 3% m-o-m

• Brazil’s iron ore exports edged down 3% to 26.53 mnt in February as against 27.26 mnt in January.
• China remained the top importer, taking up 17.32 mnt, followed by Malaysia (1.48 mnt) and the Netherlands (1.27 mnt).
• Cumulative export volumes for January-February stood at around 53.79 mnt.
• Despite record S11D output, Brucutu’s expansion, and optimised maintenance, exports declined, as the shift to higher-margin products reduced low-grade ore shipments. However, these improvements prompted Vale to raise its CY’25 guidance to 325-335 mnt.

South Africa’s shipments fall 10% m-o-m

• South Africa’s iron ore exports slipped by 10% to 4.35 mnt in February compared to 4.85 mnt in January, as per vessel line-up data maintained by BigMint.
• China was the largest importer (1.59 mnt), followed by the Netherlands (0.42 mnt).
• Cumulative exports for January-February declined by 14% to 9.2 mnt compared to 10.74 mnt in the corresponding period last year.
• South Africa’s iron ore exports fell due to weakened Chinese demand amid trade restrictions, increased global ore supply, and market uncertainty following new US steel tariffs, which impacted external demand and pricing.

India records 49% m-o-m surge, driven by supply shift

• India’s iron ore and pellet exports witnessed a 49% increase to 3.03 mnt in February from 2.04 mnt in January.
• China remained the largest importer with 1.97 mnt, followed by Malaysia with 0.31 mnt.
• Despite the m-o-m rise, total exports for January-February saw a significant 57% drop to 5.07 mnt, compared to 11.81 mnt in the same period last year.
• Exports rose in February, as demand from China rebounded and mills restarted procurement post-Lunar New Year holidays. Australian supply disruptions also shifted buyers to India. However, volumes remained lower y-o-y due to weak steel margins and cautious restocking.