Iran: Semi-finished exports and production fall y-o-y in last Persian Year

• Weak global dynamics, power curbs impact exports
• Exports of long and flat steels increase y-o-y

Iran’s semi-finished steel exports in the last Persian Year (21 March 2024-20 March 2025) stood at around 6.10 million tonnes (mnt), a decrease of 22% compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Petrometals.

However, exports of long products were recorded at 3.52 mnt, up 14% y-o-y, while shipments of flats increased by 19% y-o-y to 572,000 tonnes (t).

As per sources, weak global market dynamics and electricity restrictions on Iranian steelmakers impacted production levels, ultimately limiting billet export allocations.

Meanwhile, exports of direct reduced iron (DRI) in the period under review were recorded at 1.66 mnt, a rise of around 13% y-o-y.

Semi-finished steel production falls 6% y-o-y

According to Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA), Iran’s semi-finished steel output stood at 30.28 mnt in the previous Persian year, a decrease of 6% from 32.11 mnt in the preceding year. Production volumes declined due to the Iranian government’s power supply restrictions on steel mills, which were more stringent in the year under review compared to the previous.

Billets and blooms accounted for 19.05 mnt of total semis output, down by 7% compared to 20.47 mnt in the year-ago period.

Production of slabs inched down by 4% to 11.23 mnt as against 11.64 mnt in the corresponding period last year (CPLY).

Notably, DRI production stood at 33.66 mnt in the period under review, a slight increase of 0.8% compared to 33.40 mnt in the prior year. Severe gas restrictions have hindered the commissioning of new sponge iron production capacities.

Outlook

Amid weak market demand and a volatile global environment, billet exporters are currently reducing their supply, a trend likely to continue. Although the Trade Development Organisation exempted steel value chain exporters from the requirement to submit their export earnings to the NIMA system, this policy change failed to translate into higher export volumes.

Recent reports indicate that Iranian mills have been informed of upcoming power restrictions set to begin in May, which are expected to further constrain production capacities and reduce export allocations. As a result, BigMint anticipates that mills will increasingly rely on imports.