Coal production in Indonesia which continues to increase is apparently not in line with the condition of the resilience of coal reserves. The Government of Indonesia proposes a revision of the National Energy General Plan (RUEN) for coal production, which in 2020 could produce 550 million tons (MnT) or 37.5 percent of the RUEN figure (400 MnT).
Then in 2021 production could reach 609 MnT, up by 52.55 percent of RUEN (400 MnT). Coal production in 2022 could reach 618 MnT or an increase of 54.5 percent from RUEN. In 2023 it reached 625 MnT of coal production, up 56.25 from RUEN. Then a 57 percent increase from the RUEN 400 MnT target also occurred in 2024 where coal production reached 628 MnT.
On the other hand, based on data from the country’s Geological Agency as of December 2019, total coal reserves reached 37.6 billion tons, consisting of reserves of approximately 17 billion tons and proven reserves of 20.5 billion tons.
In Presidential Regulation No. 22/2017 concerning the National Energy General Plan signed by President Joko Widodo in March 2017, it is said that the government will control coal production at a maximum level of 400 MnT starting in 2019. Chairman of the Indonesian Mining Expert Association (Perhapi) Rizal Kasli assessed that the 400 MnT in the RUEN is no longer in line with the current conditions. Because the current production is far above the RUEN figure, if in 2020 the production target of 550 MnT is up 37.5 percent from the RUEN limit of only 400 MnT.
“This production plan number could be above the predicted number proposed to be the revised RUEN given there will be additional production from the mining license (IUP) currently under construction as well as an increase from exploration IUP to production operation IUP,” he said.
He said he did not dismiss the high production which would have an impact on coal reserves because with an increase in production the duration of the reserves would also be reduced.
Based on data from the Geological Agency as of June 2019 coal reserves totaling 21.9 billion tons for medium and high calories, with an estimated production of 600 MnT per year, coal reserves can be used to meet national energy and industrial needs for only 35 years or until 2054. If it is assumed that production according to the current RUEN is 400 MnT, the existing reserves will last until 2072 or for 53 years. This is of course also assuming that these moderate and high calorie reserves are also used by the power plant.
Inevitably, exploration needs to be done because so far there has been no significant addition of reserves. Efforts to carry out further exploration need to be done to convert resources amounting to 90.1 billion tons with an assumption of 70 percent into reserves, then coal will last until 2160 or over the next 140 years.
“The acceleration of this exploration needs to be supported by appropriate and adequate government policies in the context of long term energy security and RUEN,” he said.
Ideally, the addition of coal reserves must be in accordance with the number of annual mining (replacement recovery). This was done by replacing the mined reserves. Meanwhile, it can be done by conducting a detailed exploration of coal distribution locations that have technical, economic and environmental potential to be mined so that the reserve balance can be maintained for a long time.
“This can be monitored through the annual work plan and budget mechanism which is annually evaluated by the government,” Rizal said.
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