Indonesia: Thermal coal exports weaken in Apr’25 as regional demand varies

• India’s imports rise 11%, China’s drop 1% m-o-m
• ESDM increases reference prices for H1 of May

Indonesia’s thermal coal exports declined by a marginal 1.3% in April 2025 to 28.85 million tonnes (mnt), against 29.23 mnt in March. This decrease reflects a complex interplay of regional demand fluctuations and shifting energy market dynamics across Asia.

Market performance overview

Export performance varied significantly across key markets. India emerged as a bright spot, with imports of Indonesian thermal coal increasing by 11% m-o-m to 9.94 mnt, driven by strong energy and industrial demand. In contrast, exports to China declined by 0.9% m-o-m to 5.05 mnt, as demand weakened and the country continued its strategic transition towards renewable energy sources.

South Korea registered the steepest fall in imports, of 56.7% to 0.89 mnt, while Japan also clocked a significant 20% m-o-m decrease to 1.01 mnt. Conversely, the Philippines saw a 15% increase to 3.06 mnt, and Malaysia recorded a 10% rise to 2.46 mnt, supported by stable power generation requirements and favourable pricing conditions.

Regional export trends

East Kalimantan retained its position as Indonesia’s top coal-exporting region in April, recording a slight increase of 0.05% m-o-m to 14.08 mnt. South Kalimantan also saw a modest rise of 0.3% to 9.54 mnt.

However, other regions experienced noticeable declines. Sumatra’s export volumes fell by 4.7% to 3.91 mnt, while North Kalimantan posted a 14.6% drop to 1.32 mnt.

Port-level export performance

Export activity at major Indonesian coal ports reflected similar variability. Taboneo experienced an 11% m-o-m decline in shipments to 5.2 mnt. Balikpapan and Muara Pantai each posted declines of around 15%, to 2.14 mnt and 1.85 mnt, respectively.

Bunati also reported a reduction of 4.8 to 2.88 mnt. In contrast, Samarinda recorded a marginal increase of 0.3% to 4.38 mnt.

ESDM raises thermal coal reference prices for H1 of May

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has increased its thermal coal reference prices (Harga Batubara Acuan or HBA) for the first half of May.

The mid-calorific value (CV) 5,300 kcal/kg grade recorded the steepest increase of 3% to $80.8/tonne (t) – the highest in two months. High-CV coal (6,322 kcal/kg) increased by 0.8% to $121.15/t, low-CV (4,100 kcal/kg) rose by 0.7% to $50.43/t, and very low-CV (3,400 kcal/kg) climbed up by 1.2% to $34.73/t.

Due to these adjustments, Indonesian coal remains less competitive in the Chinese market, where narrowing price differentials with domestic grades continue to constrain demand.

Outlook: stability with downside risks

Indonesia’s thermal coal exports may remain stable in the near term, supported by steady demand from India and Southeast Asia. However, weakening Chinese demand and narrowing price competitiveness pose downside risks. Continued adjustments to HBA pricing and market diversification will be key to sustaining export momentum amid shifting regional energy dynamics.