Indonesia’s thermal coal export shipments to India fell by 20% m-o-m to 3.5 million tonnes (mn t) in Dec’21, CoalMint’s vessel line-up data revealed.
The sharp fall in exports came as Indian buyers delayed bookings awaiting further price correction while improved domestic coal production boosted supply in the country.
Indonesian thermal coal prices recorded a correction over 10% m-o-m to $151/tonne (t) in Dec’21.
After a constrained supply in Sept-Oct’21, CIL’s coal output rose by 12% m-o-m to 60 mn t in December. The company ramped up its production to keep pace with rising domestic demand.
Shipments to Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan rise
Owing to the ongoing volatility in the natural gas market and the fall in Indonesian coal prices, countries like Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam had substantially increased their coal procurement for power generation last month.
Indonesian coal exports to Japan rose by 20% m-o-m, while that to Taiwan and Vietnam rose over 10% m-o-m basis in Dec’21.
Exports to South Korea, Philippines fall
Data shows that export shipments to South Korea declined by 10% m-o-m to 1.6 mn t in December as the Korean government tightened winter restrictions on the usage of high sulphur content coal in order to control pollution.
Shipments to the Philippines also fell by 13% m-o-m to 1.7 mn t, while those to Malaysia were at 1.2 mn t, down 29% in Dec’21.
Exports to China flat
Indonesia’s total thermal coal exports fell marginally by 2% m-o-m to 26.6 mn t in Dec’21, as its major buyer China remained on the sidelines.
Indonesia’s exports to China remained largely unchanged at 13.2 mn t in Dec’21 as traders avoided making bookings amidst improved domestic production there.
Coal output in China picked up since Oct’21 to meet to its rising winter demand following an acute coal supply crunch in Aug-Sept’21. The country’s thermal coal production in Jan-Nov’21 rose by 5% y-o-y basis to 3.6 bn t.
Outlook
With the Indonesian government’s recent announcement to curb all its coal exports for Jan’22, and the subsequent discussion surrounding the decision, exports of the raw material from the country are likely to see a dramatic fall in Jan’22.
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