- ESDM increases April HBA price for high-CV thermal coal
- Mixed demand seen across key Asian markets
Indonesia’s thermal coal exports saw a 0.5% m-o-m increase in March 2025 to 29.16 million tonnes (mnt) from 29.01 mnt in February. This slight growth reflects differing trends in key Asian markets, with some regions showing increased demand, while others experienced a decline due to changing energy dynamics and market conditions.
Performance of key markets
In March, exports to India increased by 7% m-o-m, reaching 8.71 mnt, supported by robust energy and industrial sector demand. In contrast, exports to China declined by 1% m-o-m to 5.16 mnt, attributed to weakening demand and a strategic pivot towards renewable energy sources.
Exports to South Korea recorded a modest rise of 1.3% m-o-m, totaling 2.06 mnt. Meanwhile, shipments to the Philippines decreased by 6% to 2.65 mnt. Notably, exports to Japan experienced a substantial decline of 25% m-o-m, falling to 1.28 mnt. Conversely, Malaysia registered a 4% m-o-m increase in import volumes, reaching 2.29 mnt, driven by steady demand for power generation and favourable pricing dynamics.
Regional performance
In March, East Kalimantan remained the leading coal-exporting region, recording a 6% m-o-m increase to 14 mnt. South Kalimantan registered a slight decline, with export volumes easing by 2% m-o-m to 9.51 mnt. Sumatra experienced a sharp drop in exports, down 19% m-o-m to 4.10 mnt. Conversely, North Kalimantan saw a substantial increase of 46% m-o-m, with shipments rising to 1.54 mnt.
Port wise performance
In March, export volumes from Samarinda and Balikpapan rose significantly by 18%, reaching 4.36 mnt and 2.47 mnt, respectively. Taboneo recorded a moderate increase of 1.7%, with shipments totaling 5.85 mnt. In contrast, Bunati registered a decline of 14%, with export volumes decreasing to 3.02 mnt.
HBA index
Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has adjusted its April coal benchmark prices, raising the HBA for high-calorific value (CV) thermal coal, while cutting prices for mid-CV (HBA-I) and low-CV (HBA-III) coal by 3%.
Despite the changes, exporters continue to prefer the Indonesia Coal Index (ICI) over the HBA as their pricing reference.
Outlook
Indonesia’s thermal coal exports are expected to remain stable in the near term, supported by strong demand from India and select Southeast Asian markets. However, declining imports from China and Japan, along with regional production shifts and evolving energy policies, may introduce volatility. Exporters will likely continue favouring ICI pricing amid HBA adjustments.
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