Indonesia’s thermal coal exports dropped by 5% m-o-m in November to 29.38 million tonnes (mnt) compared to 30.75 mnt in October, CoalMint vessel lineup data reveals.
Trade balancing
Qty in mnt
Shipments to India record highest drop
The highest plunge in Indonesian coal exports has been seen for India with shipments falling by 46% m-o-m to 5.04 mnt. This came amid increased domestic coal supplies in the country. India’s coal production in November rose by 15% m-o-m to 75.87 mnt.
Indonesian coal is primarily used by power sector in India. However, there was an 11% increase in dispatches of domestic coal to power sector in November. Also, Indian power plants are heard having sufficient coal stock. According to Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data, coal stock at 135 power plants in the country stood at around 31 mnt in end November.
India’s power consumption in November came down by 2% m-o-m to 112.8 billion units. This came amid cooler climate and reduced power demand especially in northern part of the country.
Coal shipments to China surge
Indonesian thermal coal exports to China jumped by 54% in November amid increased restocking activity. This was because of increasing power demand in China amid harsher winters.
Indonesian coal is being offered at a premium of $3-4/t to the Chinese market amid demand pickup. Prices for low calorific value (CV) coal 3800 Kcal/kg NAR are currently assessed at $100/t and 4700 Kcal/kg at $130/t.
Exports to Japan and Taiwan increased by 76% and 29% m-o-m respectively. Amid costlier Australian coal, power plants in Japan and Taiwan opted for Indonesian coal in November.
Short-term outlook
Indonesian coal exports are likely to see a rise in the upcoming months amid strong winter restocking demand in Asia and Europe.
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