Indonesia resets thermal coal benchmarks for Dec’25, prices reflect mixed market trends

• High-CV coal prices drop 4% on soft demand
• Lower grades edge higher on cost-led buying

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has released its revised Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) for the first half of December 2025, reflecting a varied trend across thermal coal grades. The update underscores fluctuating sentiment in the global coal market, shaped by subdued buying interest, shifting regional supply conditions, and moderated energy demand in key consuming regions.

High-CV prices correct sharply as demand cools

Prices of high-calorific value (6,322 kcal/kg GAR) thermal coal registered a steep 4% decline to $98.26/t, compared to the latter half of November. The correction was primarily driven by weaker import appetite from major Asian power utilities and increasing availability from Australian miners, which collectively pressured premium-grade pricing.

Mid-CV coal records marginal uplift

Mid-calorific value (5,300 kcal/kg GAR, HBA-I) coal prices saw a 1% uptick to $67.99/t, signalling resilient regional demand for mid-tier grades. This segment benefited from steady procurement by Southeast Asian buyers seeking cost-effective options amid uncertain long-term energy policies and fluctuating freight markets.

Low-CV coal extends gains on cost advantage

Lower-grade coal indices showed a mixed yet positive trajectory. HBA-II (4,100 kcal/kg GAR) rose modestly by 0.2% to $44.37/t, supported by flexible consumption patterns among small and mid-sized industrial users. HBA-III (3,400 kcal/kg GAR) increased 0.8% to $34.15/t, reflecting stable demand from price-sensitive markets prioritising affordability over calorific efficiency.

The incremental gains in low-CV coal highlight its competitive edge amid tightening end-user budgets and uneven recovery in industrial output.

Outlook

Indonesian thermal coal prices are likely to stay range-bound, supported by steady low-grade demand but capped by weak winter consumption and freight volatility. Any improvement in industrial activity or supply disruptions may lift prices selectively, though high-CV coal is expected to remain under pressure in the absence of a clear demand rebound.