Indonesia: Coal output may fall below 700 mnt in 2026 – ESDM

• Annualised output for 2025 estimated at 779 mnt
• Weaker demand may weigh on production in 2026

Mysteel Global: Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) expects the country’s coal production to fall below 700 million tonnes (mnt) in 2026, down from the 2025 target of 735 mnt, as demand from major buyers such as China and India may weaken, according to a report by CNBC Indonesia.

Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at the ministry, said on 11 November that the government is conducting a comprehensive evaluation of next year’s coal production target, which could be set below 700 mnt.

“While the ESDM expects lower output in 2026, it remains an expectation rather than an official directive,” said an Indonesian market insider. He added that Indonesia does not often strictly follow its guidance, with actual production frequently exceeding stated targets.

For example, Indonesia’s coal output in 2024 reached 835 mnt, far surpassing the government’s goal of 710 mnt for the year.

Indonesia produced 584 mnt of coal in the first nine months of this year, down 7.4% from the same period in 2024, said Surya Herjuna, Director of Coal Business Development at the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal under the ESDM, at an industry meeting held on 5 November.

Based on that figure, annualised output for 2025 is estimated at 779 mnt, exceeding the government’s 2025 target. Mysteel Global estimates that Indonesia is likely to sustain strong production activity through the fourth quarter this year, as winter heating demand usually boosts coal consumption in China and other Northeast Asian markets.

China’s coal imports from Indonesia rebounded to a nine-month high in September, the country’s customs data showed, after domestic oversupply pressures seen in the first half of the year eased following intensified overproduction inspections beginning in July.

On the supply side, Surya expressed concern that declining coal quality could reduce Indonesia’s competitiveness in the global market, potentially weighing on export volumes. He noted that while the country’s coal reserves amount to around 31 billion tonnes by 2024, the majority are low-calorific-value grades, as CNBC Indonesia reported.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.