India’s DAM electricity prices hit ceiling during non-solar hours as power supply offers contract

• Average electricity prices reach INR 10,000/MWh throughout 6 pm-midnight
• Daytime sell bids exceed purchases as solar generation expands availability

India’s Day-Ahead Market (DAM) recorded a sharp divergence between solar and non-solar hours during 1-13 September 2026. Electricity availability increased during the daytime solar window, lowering market-clearing prices and raising scheduled volumes. After sunset, sell bids contracted sharply while purchase bids surged, pushing prices to the ceiling.

The hourly market pattern coincided with a 20.9% y-o-y increase in average daily maximum demand met, lower hydropower generation, and declining coal stocks at thermal power plants.

Hourly market balance

Purchase bids represent electricity submitted for procurement through IEX and not total national power demand. Similarly, sell bids represent electricity offered through the exchange rather than total generation available in the grid.

Solar hours record higher market availability

The DAM began loosening from 8 am. Between 9 am and 2 pm, sell bids exceeded purchase bids, while prices remained between INR 2,601/MWh and INR 3,624/MWh.

Sell bids reached their highest hourly average at 1 pm at 19,732 MWh. The market-clearing price during the same hour averaged INR 2,631/MWh.

Scheduled volumes were also highest during the daytime window. They exceeded 10,000 MWh/hour at 9 am, 11 am, noon, 1 pm, 2 pm and 3 pm. Not all offered electricity cleared during these hours: scheduled volumes represented around 63% of sell bids between 8 am and 4 pm.

Solar generation increased market availability during this period. National demand, however, remained elevated. Daily maximum demand met during early September occurred between late morning and afternoon and reached a period high of 269,063 MW on 10 September.

Prices rise sharply from afternoon

The market balance began tightening from 3 pm as purchase bids moved above sell bids.

Average MCP increased from INR 3,624/MWh at 2 pm to INR 5,191/MWh at 3 pm and INR 7,049/MWh at 4 pm. By 5 pm, the price had reached INR 9,586/MWh.

Purchase bids almost doubled from 26,967 MWh at 4 pm to 49,510 MWh at 5 pm. Over the same interval, sell bids declined from 11,651 MWh to 7,866 MWh.

At 6 pm, purchase bids increased further to 81,601 MWh while sell bids fell to 4,228 MWh, pushing the MCP to INR 10,000/MWh.

Evening offers fall to exceptionally low levels

During 6 pm-midnight, purchase bids averaged 97,839 MWh/hour against sell bids of only 3,148 MWh/hour. Scheduled volume was almost identical to sell bids, indicating that virtually all offered electricity cleared.

The largest imbalance occurred at 8 pm. Purchase bids averaged 108,448 MWh against sell bids of 2,514 MWh, a ratio of approximately 43:1.

The average MCP remained at INR 10,000/MWh during every hour from 6 pm through 11 pm. All underlying hourly observations during this period therefore reached the applicable price ceiling.

Overnight market also remains tight

High prices extended beyond the evening peak. During midnight-8 am, purchase bids averaged 57,546 MWh/hour, more than eleven times average sell bids of 5,015 MWh/hour.

Prices reached INR 10,000/MWh at midnight, 1 am, 5 am and 6 am. Even at 3 am, the average MCP remained elevated at INR 9,488/MWh.

Across all 312 hourly observations during the 13-day period, 194 observations, or 62.2%, reached the INR 10,000/MWh ceiling.

Hydro decline and coal drawdown accompany market tightness

Total power generation increased 17.7% y-o-y during 1-13 September, while coal generation rose 20.2%. Coal supplied approximately 71% of the incremental generation.

Hydropower generation declined 11.4% y-o-y. Renewable generation increased 33.3%, raising its share in the generation mix to 17.8%.

Higher thermal generation increased fuel consumption. Coal plants received 29.40 million tonnes (mnt) during the period but consumed 34.25 mnt. Power plant coal stocks consequently declined 15.2% to 24.28 mnt, while the number of critically stocked plants increased from 45 to 62.

BigMint assessment

The data establish three distinct market conditions: greater offered electricity and lower prices during solar hours; a rapid tightening from mid-afternoon; and full utilisation of exchange offers during evening and overnight hours.

The contrast demonstrates that supply availability varied materially by time of day. Additional renewable generation supported daytime availability, while electricity offered through the DAM remained severely constrained during non-solar hours.