India’s crude steel production crosses 100 mnt-mark in Jan-Aug’25 – BigMint analysis

• Crude steel output rises 10% y-o-y in 8MCY’25
• JSW Steel, RINL record impressive production growth
• At current rate, crude steel output may reach 165 mnt in CY’25

Morning Brief: For the first time and at the fastest pace India’s crude steel production reached over 100 million tonnes (mnt) in just eight months of a calendar year in CY’25. As per provisional data from BigMint, India’s crude steel production was 108.8 mnt in January-August 2025 (8MCY’25), an increase of 10% y-o-y from 99 mnt in the corresponding period last year.

Growth in crude steel production has outstripped GDP growth since the pandemic period and increasing urbanization and civic infrastructure development is creating demand for more steel. The government has announced an over INR 11 lakh crore infrastructure pipeline in this year’s Budget. That apart, the surge in demand from the automotive sector, Indian Railways, defence and renewable energy sectors, as well as consumer appliances and engineering is driving growth.

State-wise production

Odisha was the top steel producing state in the country in 8MCY’25, with production increasing to around 19 mnt, an increase of 9% y-o-y compared with 8MCY’24. As the largest mineral-bearing state of the country, all the major steel producers are keen to raise their stake in the state. Notably, Tata Steel’s Kalinganagar expansion and acquisition and operationalization of NINL boosted production from the state.

Chhattisgarh saw crude steel production in 8MCY’25 rising to around 15 mnt, an increase of 12% y-o-y. The highlight has, of course, been the Nagarnar Steel Plant in Bastar which has raised production in quick time, reporting a 100% surge in hot metal production in FY’25.

Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Bengal witnessed an increase of roughly 11-12% y-o-y in crude steel output, thanks to capacity expansion by large and medium players. Moreover, JSW Steel’s expansion in Karnataka and Maharashtra has boosted volumes.

Route-wise production

As per provisional data, hot metal production edged up by 10% y-o-y in 8MCY’25 to over 45 mnt, thanks to the increase in BF-based steel production. In comparison, EAF-based production remained largely stable y-o-y at around 23 mnt. Interestingly, IF-based crude steel production increased at an even sharper rate than hot metal production. IF-based output edged up by 13% y-o-y to over 40 mnt in 8MCY’25.

Therefore, the share of BF route in total crude steel production edged down slightly from previous years to 42%. While the share of EAF was largely stable at 21-22%, the IF-based route had a share of 37% of the country’s crude steel output in 8MCY’25 compared to 36% in the year-ago period.

So, the overall share of the electric route in crude steel production increased to 58% of India’s total production. This is because of the surge in IF-based production due to abundant raw material availability: iron ore production reached nearly 290 mnt last fiscal; DRI output increased to over 55 mnt; and domestic coal production rose to over 1 billion tonnes in FY’25.

Growing DRI production and an improvement in domestic scrap availability along with higher flexibility and lower upfront costs have encouraged the growth of IF-based steel output.

Top producers
JSW Steel emerged as the top producer in 8MCY’25, with output rising by 17% y-o-y to over 19 mnt. This is because of the capacity expansion of the company’s flagship Vijaynagar works. Further expansion of the Dolvi steel works in Maharashtra is underway.

Among the other top producers, Tata Steel and SAIL witnessed production edging up marginally y-o-y. The top achiever was surely NSL (Nagarnar Steel Limited), with crude steel output surging by nearly 70% y-o-y to 1.3 mnt.

Notably, state-owned RINL recorded a sharp 28% rise in output at around 3.4 mnt, thanks to the government’s financial package and the restart of the company’s third blast furnace in Visakhapatnam in July this year.

Outlook

At a 10% rate of growth as seen in 8MCY’25, crude steel output is expected to rise by around 15 mnt y-o-y in CY’25. So, keeping in mind CY’24 production of roughly 150 mnt, total output in CY’25 should be in the region of 165 mnt.

That said, the big steel players have lined up investments in states such as Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and in several other states and BigMint projects that the share of the BF-BOF route will rise going forward. Crude steel production is expected to reach around 220 mnt by 2030, as per projections.