India’s bulk hot-rolled coils (HRC) imports in January 2025 totalled 406,255 tonnes (t), a significant 35% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease from 623,646 t in January 2024, according to BigMint data. Moreover, imports dropped by 14% m-o-m against 473,222 t in December 2024. The decline was primarily driven by India’s proposed 25% safeguard duty on certain steel imports and the expiration of China’s BIS license certification.
However, a recent development has introduced a new competitive dynamic: the Indian government’s renewal of the BIS license of Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh (FHS), a major steel producer. This move allows FHS to re-enter the Indian steel market, particularly for HRC, and is likely to increase pressure on domestic Indian steel producers.
In January, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan emerged as India’s top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 144,785 t, 90,076 t, and 56,618 t, respectively. Interestingly, while imports from South Korean dropped 37% y-o-y, Japanese shipments surged 138% over the same period.
The growing reliance on imports, particularly from Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries like South Korea and Japan benefiting from preferential tariffs, has become a major concern for the domestic steel industry.
Export volumes decline y-o-y
On the export front, India’s bulk HRC export volumes declined 72% y-o-y in January to 111,838 t compared to 399,976 t in January 2024. In addition, volumes dropped by 56% m-o-m compared to 254,930 t in December 2024.
Indian steel mills have primarily focused on the domestic market, driven by better realisations and competitive pricing. Meanwhile, Chinese and Japanese suppliers have dominated exports to the Middle East and Vietnam, making it challenging for Indian mills to compete. Additionally, an ongoing anti-dumping investigation in Europe targeting Indian-origin HRCs has further dampened India’s steel export prospects.
Outlook
India’s bulk HRC imports exhibit a mixed trend in the short term as the impending safeguard duty aims to curb cheap imports. While, the renewal of Formosa’s BIS license may lead to an increase in volumes from Vietnam. In contrast, exports may experience a temporary uptick, driven by Indian mills resuming their offerings to the Middle East. However, competitive Chinese prices persist in the global HRC market.
Leave a Reply