India’s bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports in March 2025 were 297,505 tonnes (t), a significant 18% y-o-y decrease from 363,174 t in March 2024, according to BigMint data. Moreover, imports dropped by 26% m-o-m against 401,621 t in February. The drop was mainly attributed to India’s proposed 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports.
In March, South Korea, China, and Japan emerged as India’s top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 152,314 t, 74,294 t, and 24,243 t, respectively. Interestingly, while imports from South Korean dropped 21 % y-o-y, Chinese shipments increased by 60% and Japanese shipments declined by 79% over the same period.
The growing reliance on imports, particularly from Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries like South Korea and Japan benefiting from preferential tariffs, has become a major concern for the domestic steel industry.
Export volumes decline y-o-y
India’s bulk HRC export volumes declined 74% y-o-y in March to 169,939 t compared to 651,198 t in March 2024.
Indian steel mills have primarily focused on the domestic market, driven by better realisations and competitive pricing. Meanwhile, Chinese and Japanese suppliers have dominated exports to the Middle East and Vietnam, making it challenging for Indian mills to compete. Furthermore, weak demand in the European Union, coupled with a cautious stance from buyers, limited Indian steel exports to the region.
Outlook
India’s HRC imports are likely to remain slow due to potential safeguard duties and changing regulations. However, a recent INR 2,000-2,300/t price hike by major Indian steelmakers for April along with consistent imports from FTA countries such as South Korea and Japan are expected to exert pressure on domestic steel producers.
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