Indian tier-1 mills roll over rebar list prices for May’25

• IF-rebar prices drop m-o-m as demand wanes
• Property registrations rise y-o-y but drop m-o-m

Indian tier-1 mills have rolled over rebar list prices for early-May 2025 deliveries compared to end-April 2025 levels, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices hovered at around INR 56,000-57,000/t ($664-676/t) on landed basis. It should be noted that mills offered discounts/rebates in the previous month.

Rebar inventories with tier-1 mills witnessed an increase of around 10% m-o-m at the beginning of May 2025, sources informed BigMint.

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF-rebar prices drop m-o-m: Induction furnace (IF) rebar prices fluctuated within a narrow range amid moderate-to-weak buying in April 2025. Initial optimism from safeguard duty news spurred brief gains, but prices softened as demand waned. Despite limited buying interest at higher tags, mills faced no inventory pressure, with average holdings at 7-8 days. Overall, market sentiment stayed cautious and range-bound. IF rebar prices remained stable m-o-m at a monthly average of INR 49,400/t ($586/t) exw-Mumbai in March 2025.

The BF-IF rebar price gap increased to INR 6,500-7,000/t ($77-83/t) in Mumbai, where IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share.

2. Property registrations rise y-o-y: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, increased 4% y-o-y to 12,142 units in April 2025 as against 11,628 units in the same period last year, as per data released by Knight Frank India. On m-o-m basis, registrations declined by 22% as compared with 15,482 units in March 2025.

3. Raw material prices range-bound w-o-w: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index remained stable w-o-w at INR 5,300/t ($63/t) on 3 May, 2025. Iron ore prices in the Odisha region remained largely stable this week as trading activity continued at a moderate pace. Market participants informed that miners kept offers unchanged w-o-w, but inquiries slowed amid a decline in sponge iron and pellet prices across central and eastern India.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged up by $1/t w-o-w to $205/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook
Trade-level BF rebar prices are likely to remain supported at current levels, driven by mills maintaining their prices and limited supply to the distribution channel due to ongoing maintenance shutdowns.