According to the vessel line-up data compiled by CoalMint Research, Indian non-coking coal imports have grew 22% on the year to 128.3 MnT during the first 9-months of CY18 (Jan’18-Sep’18) against 105.16 MnT recorded in the corresponding period of CY17.
Except Apr’18, imports of non-coking have increased on the year-on-year basis during each month of CY18. Import in Sep’18 was 14.32 MnT, up 17% Y-o-Y from 12.2 MnT in Sep’17.
The rise in coal imports reflects strong demand from growing coal-fired power generation, coupled with subdued domestic coal output.
During Sep’18, thermal power generation attained its highest monthly total for the current fiscal year, clocking 87.179 BU. Besides, total power output from thermal power plants in the half year period of FY19 (Apr’18-Sep’18) have reached 529.43 BU, up 4% Y-o-Y from 509 BU in same period last year.
Recently, Indian largest coal producer, CIL, had raised its production target to 652 MnT for FY19 in order to meet the rising demand for coal in the country. However, despite having large reserves of non-coking coal, it is unlikely that the miner would attain the revised target as issues like logistic, transport and environmental challenges continue to pose threat to the production growth.
CIL’s coal production over the first half of fiscal year (Apr’18-Sep’18) has reached 256.47 MnT, which is not even the half of the revised annual target set for the fiscal year.
Despite having a better coal stock at the power plant y-o-y, the rising power demand in the country is likely to maintain healthy coal requirement from the thermal plants. In turn, CIL’s precedence for feeding the power sector could initiate higher imports from the country’s non-power sector.
Imports in Sep’18: The continual fall in Indonesian mid-CV coal prices affected sentiments – especially of the traders, while the drastic fall in Indian rupee against US dollar also weakened coal imports in Sep’18.
Imports in Sep’18 had dropped 9% M-o-M from 15.7 MnT in Aug’18. Major coal importer-Adani Enterprises had seen coal receipt reduce almost to half during the month, recorded at 1.26 MnT in Sep’18.
Major Coal Suppliers in 2018:
Indonesian coal exports to India have increased 7% Y-o-Y to 74.71 MnT during the first 9-months of CY18.
Indonesian coal price, which is typically lower energy than Australian coal, have declined, especially relative to the Newcastle 6000 NAR benchmark. This has supported strong growth in exports of Indonesian coal to India, which is a particularly price sensitive buyer.
However, exports in Sep’18 had decreased 10% Y-o-Y to 8.62 MnT from 9.6 MnT recorded in Aug’18, but were still 10% higher on the year from 7.8 MnT in Sep’17.
South African total coal supplies to India increased 15% on the year to 28.24 MnT in the 9-month period. Monthly exports in Sep’18 fell to its lowest total for CY18, recorded at 2.62 MnT.
US coal export have surged almost 3-folds during the 9-month period, whom along with Australia and Russia, has already seen yearly supplies in CY18 surpassing the previous year total.
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