Indian low-grade fines export index up by $3.5/t w-o-w, market awaits clarity on future trends

SteelMint’s weekly low-grade Indian iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $3.5/t this week and stands at $91.5/t FoB east coast India. Trade sources have adopted the ‘wait & watch’ approach due to sharp volatility in iron ore and steel futures seen this week. Indian traders cited that spot iron ore prices in China were seen on a constant decline so far till yesterday, however some recovery was seen in futures today.

Price indicators – One confirmed trade was reported for Jan’21 laycan on index basis. SteelMint has received thirteen indicative prices and offersduring the publishing window, out of which only eleven were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs, with an average price of $91.5/t FoB India.

Rationale: The index has been calculated using an average of T1 and T2 price inputs. Transactions confirmed by either a buyer/seller are designated as T1 input while bids, offers, and indicative prices are designated as T2 inputs. Both T1 and T2 categories of inputs carry 50% weightage each in price calculation for FOB price assessment.

Market highlights –

  • Spot iron ore fines price decreased by $3/t w-o-w – Chinese spot iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index decreased by around $3/t on a weekly basis and stood at $ 158.79/t CFR China yesterday against $163.05/t a week before. However, on a daily basis spot prices index decreased by around $3.45/t yesterday.
  • Futures rebound after declining early this week – Dalian iron ore futures’ contract of May’21 closed at RMB 996/t today against RMB 1,036 last week.
  • Iron ore stocks at Chinese ports decrease- Iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports has decreased this week. Iron ore inventories fell slightly by 0.2 mn t to 126.75 mn t as per data maintained by SteelHome.
  • SteelMint’s assessment for Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) increased this week and stands at INR 3,500-4,000/t (ex-mines, incl. Royalty, DMF and NMET).

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