- Higher domestic realisations, booked allocations support firmer offers
- Middle East sees bookings, while Vietnam buying remains cautious
Indian HRC export offers rose w-o-w across key destinations in the assessment week ended 25 August. Higher domestic realisations and largely filled export allocations supported firmer offers, while improved buying interest and concluded bookings provided additional support in the Middle East. In Vietnam, expectations of price increases by major local mills ahead of the peak demand season improved market sentiment, although buyers remained reluctant to accept higher offers. Meanwhile, EU trading activity remained subdued amid the summer holiday slowdown, while the October-December 2026 quota was already fully booked.
HRC export offers to Middle East, Southeast Asia increase: Indian HRC export index to the Middle East and Southeast Asia increased by $15/t w-o-w to around $525/t FOB from $510/t in the previous week, driven by higher offers to both the Middle East and Vietnam amid stronger domestic realisations and largely filled export allocations.
A major Indian steel exporter stated, “export bookings had already concluded, with available allocations fully booked. At the same time, higher domestic prices are improving local realisations, supporting mills’ ability to maintain firmer export offers.”
Offers to the Middle East rose by $10/t w-o-w to around $530/t FOB, from $520/t a week earlier, supported by improved buying interest and previously concluded bookings of around 30,000 t, with freight to Fujairah estimated at around $60/t. In contrast, Chinese HRC export offers to the region remained unchanged w-o-w at around $575/t CFR Fujairah. A UAE-based source stated, “Only a few Chinese mills were currently offering HRC to the Middle East, as elevated freight costs were reducing the competitiveness of Chinese material. With freight at around $80/t, higher delivered costs were limiting the viability of Chinese-origin shipments and, in turn, narrowing the pool of active Chinese suppliers in the market.”
In Vietnam, Indian HRC export offers increased by $25/t w-o-w to around $530/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City from $505/t CFR in the previous week. However, no fresh bookings were concluded at these levels, as buyers remained reluctant to accept the higher offers. A regional source stated, “Indian steelmakers were instead opting to allocate volumes to markets such as the Middle East, where export realisations were substantially higher than in Vietnam, leaving mills with little incentive to lower their Vietnam offers.”
Another regional source stated, “Expectations that major Vietnamese mills will raise prices in their September announcements ahead of the peak demand season are supporting market sentiment, with spot prices beginning to recover from recent lows.”
HRC export offers to EU rise w-o-w: Indian HRC export index to the EU rose by $15/t w-o-w to around $605/t FOB, from $590/t FOB a week earlier. However, summer holidays have slowed trading activity across the region, with many participants away, keeping buying interest relatively subdued. In addition, the October-December 2026 quota is already fully booked, limiting the scope for further bookings and keeping overall market activity muted.
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is likely to remain limited in the coming week, as mills have largely filled their export allocations and are seeing better realisations in the domestic market. This may reduce their need to seek additional export volumes, while stronger domestic prices could encourage mills to maintain firm export offers.
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