- Fully booked Q4 quotas stall trading activity in the EU
- Restocking demand from pipe makers supports Middle East buying
Indian HRC export offers remained largely stable w-o-w across key destinations, with prices unchanged to the EU, Middle East and Vietnam. While EU buying remained constrained by fully booked Q4 quotas and seasonal slowdown, Middle East demand showed some improvement as depleted inventories prompted pipe manufacturers to book material. However, in Vietnam, weak downstream demand continued to limit buying interest and keep trading activity subdued.
HRC export offers to EU remain unchanged w-o-w: Indian HRC export index to the EU remained unchanged w-o-w at around $590/t FOB. The October-December 2026 quota is already fully booked, while imports beyond the available quota would attract the 50% out-of-quota duty, effectively ruling out additional bookings for the defined quota period. Buyers are therefore waiting for the next booking window, expected to open in October for the Q1 CY’27 quota period, before considering new purchases. Meanwhile, an EU-based source stated, “Summer holidays have slowed trading activity across the market, with many market participants away on holiday. Consequently, buying interest has remained limited, while trading discussions have been relatively subdued across the region.”
HRC export offers to Middle East, Southeast Asia remain stable w-o-w: Indian HRC export index to the Middle East and Southeast Asia remained stable w-o-w at around $510/t FOB, with offers to both regions unchanged.
Export offers to the Middle East stood at around $520/t FOB, with freight to Fujairah estimated at around $60/t. Moreover, some HRC bookings were reportedly concluded at similar levels for September shipments; however, this could not be confirmed during the assessment window. A UAE-based source stated, “Pipe manufacturers remain the primary buyers of HRC from India for rerolling, as inventories have been largely depleted. With stocks running low, buyers have returned to the market to replenish inventories and meet their production requirements, supporting buying activity across the region.”
Similarly, Chinese HRC export offers remained unchanged w-o-w at around $575/t CFR Fujairah, keeping the regional import prices largely stable. Another UAE-based source stated, “Only a limited number of Chinese mills were currently offering HRC to the Middle East, as elevated freight costs continued to weigh on the feasibility of shipments, discouraging wider participation from Chinese suppliers.”
In Vietnam, Indian HRC export offers remained unchanged w-o-w at around $505/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City. However, weak downstream demand continued to weigh on buying interest, keeping trading activity subdued across the region.
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is likely to show mixed trends in the coming week. EU buying is expected to remain muted as fully booked Q4 quotas and the seasonal slowdown limit new bookings. In contrast, Middle East demand may remain relatively supportive, with pipe manufacturers replenishing depleted inventories. At the same time, elevated freight costs are likely to limit Chinese supply, while India’s shorter voyage to the region could support shipment availability. Meanwhile, weak downstream demand is expected to keep Vietnamese buyers cautious and constrain buying interest.
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